LSE · United Kingdom · Apparel Retail

NEXT plc NXT.L

Price £153.55Mkt cap 17,528 GBP mnReports in GBPData 2 Nov 2026

Value estimate · 50% DCF, 50% peers£229.00+49.1%+49.1% vs £153.55

DCF (base)£243.80+58.8% vs price · WACC 7.1%

Peers£213.735 peers · median EV/EBITDA 13.6x

Price implies-5.2%revenue growth a year; your case 5.3%

Chance worth more96%of 2,000 simulated outcomes

Scenario

drives the result

Scenario probabilities (%)

BearBaseBull

Use the probability-weighted DCF instead of the live scenario

Forecast drivers

Base case, %

Driver	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Revenue growthFY23–FY26 avg 11.1%
EBIT marginFY23–FY26 avg 18.1%
Tax rateFY23–FY26 avg 22.2%
D&A % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 4.4%
Capex % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 3.3%
Working capital % of revenue changeFY23–FY26 avg 9.6%

Consensus revenue growth (17 analysts): 5.0% this fiscal year, 5.8% next (Yahoo Finance). The base case fades to 5.0% by year five; bear and bull sit 3 points of growth and 1.5 points of margin either side.

Discount rate

WACC build

GBP 10-year government bond yield (%)Estimate: US 10-year Treasury yield. Replace it with the GBP 10-year government bond yield.

Less: country default spread (%)0 when the bond above is default-free

Beta2 years, weekly vs FTSE 100: 0.48 (R² 0.07)

Equity risk premium (%)Damodaran country risk table (January 2026), United Kingdom, rating Aa3

Pre-tax cost of debt (%)starter: bond yield + 1.5 points

Terminal growth g (%)must stay below WACC

Risk-free rate: 4.93%
Cost of equity: 7.33%
Weight of equity: 90.6%
After-tax cost of debt: 4.98%
WACC: 7.11%

Result rules

set before you look

DCF weight (%)peers get 50%

Share price (GBP)Yahoo, 30 Oct 2026 (delayed)

Check before you rely on thisThe risk-free rate is an estimate for GBP: enter the local 10-year government bond yield.

In plain English

The model's numbers as sentences. Every figure comes from the live data and your inputs, so the story changes when you change an input.

Priced for slower growth than it has delivered

Favourable
At today's price of £153.55, the market is pricing in revenue growth of about -5.2% a year for FY27E–FY31E, holding the rest of your base case. NEXT plc's revenue grew 11.1% a year between FY23 and FY26, so the price asks for less than it has delivered.
Favourable
Your base case assumes 5.3% revenue growth a year on average, more than the price implies, and values the shares at £243.80, 59% above today's price.
Favourable
If your base case comes true, the whole business would return about 9.3% a year at today's price, 2.2 percentage points more than the 7.1% a year the model requires (the WACC).
Context
About 34% of today's price pays for future growth. The other 66%, £100.78 a share, is what FY26 operating profit after tax is worth if it never grows.
Favourable
Across 2,000 simulated futures around your base case, the middle 80% of values runs from £173.75 to £383.73 a share, and 96% of them are worth more than today's price.
Favourable
Business health grade A (94 out of 100): passes most quality and accounting screens, with 5 strengths and no red flags.

Educational, not investment advice. “Favourable” means the numbers lean in today's price's favour; “Caution” means the price asks a lot of the future.

Football field

Every valuation range side by side, against today's price and the value estimate. Per share, in GBP.

Show as table

Range	Low	Mid	High
DCF scenarios (bear to bull)	£195	£244	£307
DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point)	£164	£244	£475
Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs)	£174	£246	£384
EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile)	£143	£160	£209
P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile)	£231	£267	£278
Analyst targets (20 analysts, low to high)	£139	£163	£187
52-week share price (trading range)	£117	–	£162

Business health

Is this a good, honest business, not just a cheap one? Published screens on the reported annual accounts (FY23–FY26), plus plain ratios. Screens, not verdicts: read the accounts before relying on any of them.

GradeA94 / 100

Grade A (94/100): passes most quality and accounting screens, with 5 strengths and no red flags.

Piotroski F-score8 / 9nine tests of strength

Altman Z''6.21Safe zone · safe above 2.60

Beneish M-score−2.76No flag · cut-off −1.78

Red flags none

None of the checks raised a red flag.

Strengths 5

Strong fundamentals: Piotroski F-score is 8 of 9 for FY26.
Profit is backed by cash: operations produced 137% of reported profit over 4 years.
Comfortable balance sheet: Altman Z'' is 6.21, in the safe zone (above 2.60).
High return on capital: ROCE was 38.0% in FY26.
High return for shareholders: ROE was 53.9% in FY26.

Cash conversion Good137%Operating cash flow ÷ net profit, FY23–FY26. 90% or more means profit is backed by cash.

Return on capital (ROCE) Good38.0%EBIT ÷ (total assets − current liabilities), FY26. 15% or more is strong.

Return on equity Good53.9%Net profit ÷ average shareholders' equity, FY26. 15% or more is strong. A very high figure often means buybacks or past losses have shrunk equity.

Interest cover Good13.1xEBIT ÷ interest cost, FY26. 5x or more is comfortable; below 2x is risky.

Net debt ÷ EBITDA Good1.1x(Borrowings − cash) ÷ (EBIT + D&A), FY26. 1.5x or less is comfortable; above 3.5x is heavy.

Receivable days Good80 daysReceivables ÷ revenue × 365. Down from 94 days in FY23; a rise of more than 20 days is a warning.

Share count change Good−1.5% a yearWeighted diluted shares, a year, FY23–FY26. Above 2% a year is heavy dilution; shares issued for mergers count too.

Paid out to shareholders Info74.8%Dividends and buybacks ÷ net profit, FY23–FY26. Neither high nor low is good on its own: it depends on how well the company could reinvest.

Stock-based pay Good0.6%Share-based pay ÷ revenue, FY26. Above 5% is a large hidden cost to owners.

Years of revenue growth Good3 of 3Years in which revenue beat the year before, FY23–FY26.

EBIT margin trend Fair+0.1 ptsFrom 18.4% in FY23 to 18.5% in FY26.

Piotroski's tests, one by one (8 passed of 9)

PASS
Made a profit Return on assets 18.2% in FY26
A company that loses money on its assets is using up its owners' capital.
PASS
Operations brought in cash Operating cash flow GBP 1,234 mn in FY26
Profit has to arrive as cash in the end, and cash flow is harder to dress up than profit.
PASS
Return on assets improved 18.2% vs FY25's 15.6%
Rising profitability is one of the clearest signs a business is getting stronger.
PASS
Cash from operations beat profit Cash GBP 1,234 mn vs profit GBP 889 mn
When cash lags profit, earnings may rest on generous accounting or customers who pay late.
FAIL
Long-term debt fell relative to assets Long-term debt 12.3% of average assets vs FY25's 11.3%
More debt leaves less room for error when business slows.
PASS
Short-term liquidity improved Current ratio 1.76 vs FY25's 1.69
More short-term assets per rupee of bills due within a year means less risk of a cash squeeze.
PASS
No new shares issued Diluted shares −2.0% vs FY25
Issuing shares shrinks each owner's slice and can mean the company could not fund itself.
PASS
Gross margin improved Gross margin 44.1% vs FY25's 43.2%
A higher gross margin points to pricing power or falling costs.
PASS
Assets worked harder (turnover up) Revenue ÷ assets 1.42x vs FY25's 1.30x
More sales from the same assets means the business uses its capital better.

F-score by year: FY24 6/9 · FY25 5/9

How the Altman and Beneish scores are built

Altman Z'' = 6.21 (safe)
Ratio	Value	Weight	Adds
Working capital ÷ total assets	0.242	6.56	1.59
Retained earnings ÷ total assets	0.711	3.26	2.32
Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets	0.260	6.72	1.75
Book equity ÷ total liabilities	0.530	1.05	0.56

FY26 figures. Safe above 2.60, grey zone 1.10 to 2.60, distress below 1.10.

Z'' by year: FY23 6.32 · FY24 5.82 · FY25 5.80

Beneish M = -2.76
Index	Value	Manipulators	Others
Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI)	0.976	1.465	1.031
Gross margin slipping (GMI)	0.978	1.193	1.014
More hard-to-value assets (AQI)	0.958	1.254	1.039
Sales growth (SGI)	1.128	1.607	1.134
Depreciation slowing (DEPI)	0.930	1.077	1.001
Overheads vs sales (SGAI)	1.012	1.041	1.054
Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA)	-0.070	0.031	0.018
Leverage rising (LVGI)	1.012	1.111	1.037

FY26 against FY25. Above −1.78 the pattern resembles companies later found to have manipulated earnings; some analysts use a stricter −2.22.

How to read this

Piotroski F-score (Joseph Piotroski, 2000): nine pass-or-fail tests of profitability, debt, liquidity and efficiency, each comparing the latest year with the one before. 7 or more is strong; 3 or fewer is weak.

Altman Z'' (Edward Altman, 1995, the version for non-manufacturers and emerging markets): combines working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and book equity relative to the balance sheet. Above 2.60 is the safe zone, below 1.10 the distress zone.

Beneish M-score (Messod Beneish, 1999): eight ratios that, in his study, separated companies later found to have manipulated earnings. Above −1.78 resembles that pattern. It is a prompt to read the notes to the accounts, not an accusation.

Grade: a 0 to 100 blend (Piotroski 40%, Altman 20%, Beneish 15%, the ratios 25%, re-weighted when a part is missing): A from 80, B from 65, C from 50, D from 35, E below.

All three screens were built on US companies and annual accounts from Yahoo Finance, which can be incomplete. Lenders, insurers and holding companies get financial-firm ratios instead of the Altman and Beneish screens.

What analysts expect

Price targets and ratings from the brokers' analysts who cover the stock, as Yahoo collects them. Their opinion, not this app's; set against the model so you can see where you differ.

20 analysts' average 12-month target is £163, +6.4% against today's £154 (median £162). The range runs from £139 to £187.

Ratings this month: 11 buy, 9 hold, 0 sell; the average works out to "Buy" (2.0 on a 1 to 5 scale, 1 = strong buy).

Your value estimate of £229 is 40% above the analysts' average: a big gap is worth explaining, it usually comes down to growth or margin assumptions.

Targets are usually for 12 months ahead and tend to run optimistic; brokers that cover a company often do business with it. Counts and targets come from different updates, so they may not match exactly.

Risk and likely range

How much the shares have swung and how far they have fallen over five years. Risk repeats far more reliably than direction, so this is the honest kind of forecast: how far the price may move, not which way.

Loading five years of prices…

What the price implies

A reverse DCF: the constant revenue growth, or the constant EBIT margin, that makes the DCF equal today's price, holding everything else in your base case.

Implied revenue growth, a year-5.2%Your base case averages 5.3%. The market expects less growth than you do.

Implied EBIT margin11.9%Your base case averages 18.5%; the last reported year was 18.5%.

What you'd earn at today's price

The yearly return on the whole business at today's price if your base case comes true, against the return the model requires and what a government bond pays.

Favourable

If your base case comes true, today's price earns about 9.3% a year, 2.2 percentage points more than the 7.1% the model requires.

Expected returnif your base case comes true9.3%
Required return (WACC)what the model discounts at7.1%
Government bondwhat the GBP 10-year government bond pays4.9%

What the price pays for

Today's business, no growth66%£100.78 a share: earnings power value

Future growth34%£52.77 a share

Earnings yield5.3%£8.13 trailing EPS ÷ price

Free cash flow yield6.2%FY27E forecast ÷ market value

10-year bond4.9%interest a year

Cost of equity7.3%what shareholders require

Favourable

Every £100 of share price buys £5.30 of today's profit a year, more than the £4.93 of interest the bond pays, though profit is less certain than interest.

How these are worked out

Expected return (an internal rate of return). Imagine buying the whole company at today's price: its shares and its debt, less its cash. The expected return is the yearly rate that makes the free cash flows in your base case, plus the value after FY31E growing at 3.0%, add up to exactly today's price. When it is above the WACC, the price sits below your DCF value. It only comes true if the forecast does.

Earnings power value. What the business is worth if its last reported operating profit never grows or shrinks (a simplified version of Bruce Greenwald's method). It treats depreciation as the spending needed to stand still, and uses reported rather than average profit, so one unusual year moves it.

FY26 operating profit (EBIT), GBP mn: 1,277
After tax at 22.2%: 994
Held flat for ever: ÷ WACC of 7.1%: 13,969
+ Cash − debt, leases, minorities and dividends since the balance sheet: -2,464
÷ Shares, per share: £100.78

Earnings yield is the profit a year you buy with each unit of price (the P/E turned upside down). Free cash flow yield is the same idea with next year's forecast cash flow.

Show as table

Measure	Value
Expected return (IRR), base case	9.3%
Required return (WACC)	7.1%
Expected minus required	+2.2 pts
Cost of equity	7.3%
10-year government bond	4.9%
Earnings power value per share	£100.78
Share of price paying for growth	34%
Earnings yield	5.3%
Free cash flow yield	6.2%

Three scenarios

Revenue path for each scenario and its value per share with the same WACC and terminal growth.

Bear · 25%£195.23+27.1% vs price

Base · 50%£243.80+58.8% vs price

Bull · 25%£306.65+99.7% vs price

Probability-weighted£247.37+61.1% vs price

ReportedBearBaseBull

Show as table

Revenue, GBP mn	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Reported	5,034	5,491	6,118	6,901
Bear					7,039	7,236	7,417	7,588	7,740
Base					7,246	7,667	8,088	8,517	8,943
Bull					7,453	8,109	8,799	9,529	10,291

Monte Carlo

2,000 simulated futures around your base case. Each run shifts growth, margin, WACC and terminal growth at random using the spreads below (one standard deviation).

Growth spread (± pts)Margin spread (± pts)WACC spread (± pts)Terminal growth spread (± pts)

Worth more than the price96%of runs above £153.55

Median outcome£246.01+60.2% vs price

Downside (10th pct)£173.751 run in 10 is lower

Upside (90th pct)£383.731 run in 10 is higher

Runs below today's priceRuns above it

Free cash flow, base case

FCF = EBIT × (1 − tax) + D&A − capex − increase in working capital, discounted at the WACC from today to each fiscal year end.

Free cash flowPresent value

GBP mn	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Revenue	7,246	7,667	8,088	8,517	8,943
EBIT	1,341	1,418	1,496	1,576	1,654
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax)	1,043	1,103	1,164	1,226	1,287
+ D&A	319	337	356	375	393
− Capex	239	253	267	281	295
− Increase in working capital	34.5	42.0	42.2	42.9	42.6
Free cash flow	1,088	1,146	1,211	1,277	1,343
Present value	1,070	1,052	1,038	1,021	1,003
Years to year end (t)	0.25	1.25	2.25	3.25	4.25

From cash flows to a share price

Enterprise value plus cash, minus debt, leases, minority interests and cash already returned to shareholders since the balance sheet, divided by the shares.

Present value of FCF: 5,183
Present value of terminal value: 25,111
Enterprise value: 30,294
+ Cash and short-term investments (31 Jan 2026): 96.2
− Borrowings: 809
− Lease liabilities: 1,000
− Minority interests: 118
− Dividends since the balance sheet: 633
Equity value: 27,830
÷ Shares outstanding: 114.15 mn
Value per share: £243.80

All amounts in GBP mn. Dividends with ex-dates after 2026-01-31: 2026-07-02 (1.81 per share); about 3 million shares bought back since then, valued at today's price.

Terminal value share of enterprise value82.9%Above 75%: most of the value comes after the forecast years.

Sensitivity: WACC against terminal growth

DCF value per share, base case. Blue cells sit above today's price, red cells below; the outlined cell is your current pair.

g ↓ · WACC →	6.11%	6.61%	7.11%	7.61%	8.11%
2.0%	£251	£222	£199	£180	£164
2.5%	£284	£248	£219	£196	£177
3.0%	£327	£280	£244	£216	£193
3.5%	£387	£322	£275	£240	£212
4.0%	£475	£381	£317	£271	£236

Peers

Found from Yahoo's related stocks in the same industry; multiples rebuilt here so currencies match. Untick a peer to drop it, or add your own.

Company	In median	EV/EBITDA	P/E	EV/Sales	P/B	Op. margin	Rev. growth
Kingfisher plc KGF.L Home Improvement Retail		7.3x	19.2x	0.6x	1.0x	6.6%	0.8%
Marks and Spencer Group plc MKS.L Department Stores		13.6x	32.9x	0.6x	2.8x	2.5%	27.2%
Whitbread plc WTB.L Lodging		12.3x	79.5x	3.3x	1.5x	24.1%	2.0%
Compass Group PLC CPG.L Restaurants		17.3x	28.4x	1.4x	7.2x	6.7%	10.7%
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC IHG.L Lodging		21.9x	34.2x	5.3x	–	25.1%	5.6%
Median of included	5	13.6x	32.9x	1.4x	2.1x
NEXT plc	–	13.1x	18.9x	2.7x	10.8x	18.5%	12.8%

Add a peer

Implied value per share	25th pct	Median	75th pct
EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash	£143 (12.3x)	£160 (13.6x)	£209 (17.3x)
P/E × earnings per share	£231 (28.4x)	£267 (32.9x)	£278 (34.2x)
P/B × book value per share	£19.28 (1.4x)	£30.25 (2.1x)	£55.14 (3.9x)
EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only)	£23.96 (0.6x)	£69.77 (1.4x)	£195 (3.3x)
Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices)		£213.73

Against its own past

Is today's multiple high or low for this stock? Its P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) or P/B (price ÷ book value per share) month by month, against the range it has traded in.

Loading ten years of monthly prices…

Pitch summary

Three pieces of evidence that lead to a view. The client summary button copies all of this as text.

1 · Margins-1 bpsEBIT margin change from the last reported year (18.5%) to FY31E (18.5%)

2 · Valuation vs peers-3.7%NEXT plc EV/EBITDA against the peer median; negative means cheaper

3 · Cash6.2%FCF yield: FY27E free cash flow ÷ market value at today's price

NEXT plc (NXT.L), valuation summary, 2 Nov 2026
Value estimate £229.00 (+49.1% vs today's price of £153.55).

• DCF (base case): £243.80 per share. WACC 7.11%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 83% of enterprise value.
• Peers: £213.73 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 5 peers).
• Scenarios: bear £195.23, base £243.80, bull £306.65; probability-weighted £247.37.
• What the price implies: -5.2% revenue growth a year for FY27E–FY31E, against 5.3% in this forecast.
• Monte Carlo: 96% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% £173.75 to £383.73.
• Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 5.0% → 5.8% → 5.5% → 5.3% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 18.5% to 18.5%; tax 22.2%.
• Checks: all pass.

Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 2 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.

Model checks

7 pass, 0 to review.

PASSWACC is above terminal growth g
PASSThe DCF gives a positive value per share
PASSShares × price is within 2% of the reported market cap
PASSScenario values are in order: bear ≤ base ≤ bull
PASSAt least three peers are in the medians
PASSTerminal value is less than 85% of enterprise value
PASSThe forecast starts after the last reported year

Company data

What the model uses, from Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices). Edit any number that looks wrong; your edits stay in this browser and are marked.

GBP mn	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	Avg ratio
Revenue					growth 11.1%
EBIT (operating profit)					margin 18.1%
D&A					4.4%
Profit before tax
Tax					rate 22.2%
Capex					3.3%
Increase in working capital					9.6% of Δrev

Cash and short-term investments (GBP mn)
Borrowings (GBP mn)
Lease liabilities (GBP mn)
Minority interests (GBP mn)
Dividends since the balance sheet (GBP mn)

Revenue, trailing 12 months (GBP mn)
EBITDA, trailing 12 months (GBP mn)
Net income, trailing 12 months (GBP mn)
Shares outstanding (mn)

FY labels follow Indian fiscal years ending in March. Shares: 114,152,051. Price £153.55 at Fri, 30 Oct 2026 16:36:35 GMT.

Loading prices, five years of statements and peers…

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Driver

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

FY30E

FY31E

Revenue growthFY23–FY26 avg 11.1%

EBIT marginFY23–FY26 avg 18.1%

Tax rateFY23–FY26 avg 22.2%

D&A % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 4.4%

Capex % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 3.3%

Working capital % of revenue changeFY23–FY26 avg 9.6%

Range

Low

Mid

High

DCF scenarios (bear to bull)

£195

£244

£307

DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point)

£164

£244

£475

Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs)

£174

£246

£384

EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile)

£143

£160

£209

P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile)

£231

£267

£278

Analyst targets (20 analysts, low to high)

£139

£163

£187

52-week share price (trading range)

£117

–

£162

Altman Z'' = 6.21 (safe)

Ratio

Value

Weight

Adds

Working capital ÷ total assets

0.242

6.56

1.59

Retained earnings ÷ total assets

0.711

3.26

2.32

Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets

0.260

6.72

1.75

Book equity ÷ total liabilities

0.530

1.05

0.56

Beneish M = -2.76

Index

Value

Manipulators

Others

Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI)

0.976

1.465

1.031

Gross margin slipping (GMI)

0.978

1.193

1.014

More hard-to-value assets (AQI)

0.958

1.254

1.039

Sales growth (SGI)

1.128

1.607

1.134

Depreciation slowing (DEPI)

0.930

1.077

1.001

Overheads vs sales (SGAI)

1.012

1.041

1.054

Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA)

-0.070

0.031

0.018

Leverage rising (LVGI)

1.012

1.111

1.037

Measure

Value

Expected return (IRR), base case

9.3%

Required return (WACC)

7.1%

Expected minus required

+2.2 pts

Cost of equity

7.3%

10-year government bond

4.9%

Earnings power value per share

£100.78

Share of price paying for growth

34%

Earnings yield

5.3%

Free cash flow yield

6.2%

Revenue, GBP mn

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

FY30E

FY31E

Reported

5,034

5,491

6,118

6,901

Bear

7,039

7,236

7,417

7,588

7,740

Base

7,246

7,667

8,088

8,517

8,943

Bull

7,453

8,109

8,799

9,529

10,291

GBP mn

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

FY30E

FY31E

Revenue

7,246

7,667

8,088

8,517

8,943

EBIT

1,341

1,418

1,496

1,576

1,654

NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax)

1,043

1,103

1,164

1,226

1,287

+ D&A

319

337

356

375

393

− Capex

239

253

267

281

295

− Increase in working capital

34.5

42.0

42.2

42.9

42.6

Free cash flow

1,088

1,146

1,211

1,277

1,343

Present value

1,070

1,052

1,038

1,021

1,003

Years to year end (t)

0.25

1.25

2.25

3.25

4.25

g ↓ · WACC →

6.11%

6.61%

7.11%

7.61%

8.11%

2.0%

£251

£222

£199

£180

£164

2.5%

£284

£248

£219

£196

£177

3.0%

£327

£280

£244

£216

£193

3.5%

£387

£322

£275

£240

£212

4.0%

£475

£381

£317

£271

£236

Company

In median

EV/EBITDA

P/E

EV/Sales

P/B

Op. margin

Rev. growth

Kingfisher plc KGF.L

Home Improvement Retail

7.3x

19.2x

0.6x

1.0x

6.6%

0.8%

Marks and Spencer Group plc MKS.L

Department Stores

13.6x

32.9x

0.6x

2.8x

2.5%

27.2%

Whitbread plc WTB.L

Lodging

12.3x

79.5x

3.3x

1.5x

24.1%

2.0%

Compass Group PLC CPG.L

Restaurants

17.3x

28.4x

1.4x

7.2x

6.7%

10.7%

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC IHG.L

Lodging

21.9x

34.2x

5.3x

–

25.1%

5.6%

Median of included

13.6x

32.9x

1.4x

2.1x

NEXT plc

–

13.1x

18.9x

2.7x

10.8x

18.5%

12.8%

Implied value per share

25th pct

Median

75th pct

EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash

£143 (12.3x)

£160 (13.6x)

£209 (17.3x)

P/E × earnings per share

£231 (28.4x)

£267 (32.9x)

£278 (34.2x)

P/B × book value per share

£19.28 (1.4x)

£30.25 (2.1x)

£55.14 (3.9x)

EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only)

£23.96 (0.6x)

£69.77 (1.4x)

£195 (3.3x)

Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices)

£213.73

NEXT plc (NXT.L), valuation summary, 2 Nov 2026 Value estimate £229.00 (+49.1% vs today's price of £153.55). • DCF (base case): £243.80 per share. WACC 7.11%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 83% of enterprise value. • Peers: £213.73 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 5 peers). • Scenarios: bear £195.23, base £243.80, bull £306.65; probability-weighted £247.37. • What the price implies: -5.2% revenue growth a year for FY27E–FY31E, against 5.3% in this forecast. • Monte Carlo: 96% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% £173.75 to £383.73. • Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 5.0% → 5.8% → 5.5% → 5.3% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 18.5% to 18.5%; tax 22.2%. • Checks: all pass. Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 2 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.

GBP mn

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

Avg ratio

Revenue

growth 11.1%

EBIT (operating profit)

margin 18.1%

D&A

4.4%

Profit before tax

Tax

rate 22.2%

Capex

3.3%

Increase in working capital

9.6% of Δrev