XETRA · Germany · Auto Manufacturers

Mercedes-Benz Group AG MBG.DE

Price €40.68Mkt cap 38,615 EUR mnReports in EURData 1 Nov 2026

Value estimate · peers only€138.00+239.2%+239.2% vs €40.68Far from the price (3.4 times it): odd data or inputs that don't fit the company are the usual cause. Check the warnings and the company data before relying on it.

DCF (base)–not meaningful with these inputs

Peers€138.295 peers · median EV/EBITDA 11.7x

Price implies–revenue growth a year; your case 2.5%

Chance worth more20%of 2,000 simulated outcomes

Scenario

drives the result

Scenario probabilities (%)

BearBaseBull

Use the probability-weighted DCF instead of the live scenario

Forecast drivers

Base case, %

Driver	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E
Revenue growth2022–2025 avg -4.0%
EBIT margin2022–2025 avg 8.9%
Tax rate2022–2025 avg 24.1%
D&A % of revenue2022–2025 avg 4.7%
Capex % of revenue2022–2025 avg 5.8%
Working capital % of revenue change2022–2025 avg –

Consensus revenue growth (11 analysts): -3.3% this fiscal year, 2.8% next (Yahoo Finance). The base case fades to 5.0% by year five; bear and bull sit 3 points of growth and 1.5 points of margin either side.

Discount rate

WACC build

EUR 10-year government bond yield (%)Estimate: US 10-year Treasury yield. Replace it with the EUR 10-year government bond yield.

Less: country default spread (%)0 when the bond above is default-free

Beta2 years, weekly vs DAX: 1.15 (R² 0.40)

Equity risk premium (%)Damodaran country risk table (January 2026), Germany, rating Aaa

Pre-tax cost of debt (%)starter: bond yield + 1.5 points

Terminal growth g (%)must stay below WACC

Risk-free rate: 4.93%
Cost of equity: 9.79%
Weight of equity: 31.9%
After-tax cost of debt: 4.86%
WACC: 6.43%

Result rules

set before you look

DCF weight (%)peers get 50%

Share price (EUR)Yahoo, 30 Oct 2026 (delayed)

Check before you rely on thisThe risk-free rate is an estimate for EUR: enter the local 10-year government bond yield.Debt is 213% of market value. If part of it funds a lending or finance arm (car makers, conglomerates), the DCF will understate equity value: check the bridge.

In plain English

The model's numbers as sentences. Every figure comes from the live data and your inputs, so the story changes when you change an input.

The DCF can't value it with these inputs

Context
Your base case doesn't give a usable DCF value: the WACC must stay above terminal growth and the value must come out positive.
Caution
2025 operating profit after tax, held flat for ever, doesn't cover the debt and other claims, so the whole price rests on growth or a recovery.
Context
Business health grade C (63 out of 100): shows a mixed picture, with 4 strengths and 5 red flags (top concern: debt is high).

Educational, not investment advice. “Favourable” means the numbers lean in today's price's favour; “Caution” means the price asks a lot of the future.

Football field

Every valuation range side by side, against today's price and the value estimate. Per share, in EUR.

Show as table

Range	Low	Mid	High
DCF scenarios (bear to bull)	-€47.30	-€10.22	€51.84
DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point)	-€30.54	-€10.22	€66.60
Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs)	-€76.35	-€10.02	€74.55
EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile)	€66.09	€94.12	€120
P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile)	€110	€182	€184
Analyst targets (20 analysts, low to high)	€32.00	€51.16	€73.80
52-week share price (trading range)	€38.89	–	€62.34

Business health

Is this a good, honest business, not just a cheap one? Published screens on the reported annual accounts (2022–2025), plus plain ratios. Screens, not verdicts: read the accounts before relying on any of them.

GradeC63 / 100

Grade C (63/100): shows a mixed picture, with 4 strengths and 5 red flags (top concern: debt is high).

Piotroski F-score6 / 9nine tests of strength

Altman Z''2.45Grey zone · safe above 2.60

Beneish M-score−2.78No flag · cut-off −1.78

Red flags 5

Debt is high: net debt is 5.2x EBITDA in 2025. Carmakers and conglomerates often carry a lending arm's debt here, which overstates the burden.
Margins are shrinking: EBIT margin fell 8.2 points from 2022 to 2025.
Low return on capital: ROCE was 2.7% in 2025, below 10%.
Low return for shareholders: ROE was 5.5% in 2025, below 10%.
Revenue is erratic: it grew in only 1 of 3 years over 2022–2025.

Strengths 4

Profit is backed by cash: operations produced 152% of reported profit over 4 years.
Share count shrinking 3.5% a year, so each share owns more of the business.
Interest is easily covered: operating profit is 12 times interest in 2025.
The accounts don't match the manipulator pattern: Beneish M-score is −2.78, below the −1.78 cut-off.

Cash conversion Good152%Operating cash flow ÷ net profit, 2022–2025. 90% or more means profit is backed by cash.

Return on capital (ROCE) Weak2.7%EBIT ÷ (total assets − current liabilities), 2025. 15% or more is strong. A lending arm's loan book inflates capital employed and pulls this down.

Return on equity Weak5.5%Net profit ÷ average shareholders' equity, 2025. 15% or more is strong.

Interest cover Good12.2xEBIT ÷ interest cost, 2025. 5x or more is comfortable; below 2x is risky.

Net debt ÷ EBITDA Weak5.2x(Borrowings − cash) ÷ (EBIT + D&A), 2025. 1.5x or less is comfortable; above 3.5x is heavy. Carmakers and conglomerates often carry a lending arm's debt here, which overstates the burden.

Receivable days Good95 daysReceivables ÷ revenue × 365. Up from 94 days in 2022; a rise of more than 20 days is a warning.

Share count change Good−3.5% a yearWeighted diluted shares, a year, 2022–2025. Above 2% a year is heavy dilution; shares issued for mergers count too.

Paid out to shareholders Info63.0%Dividends and buybacks ÷ net profit, 2022–2025. Neither high nor low is good on its own: it depends on how well the company could reinvest.

Stock-based pay n/a–Stock-based compensation not reported.

Years of revenue growth Weak1 of 3Years in which revenue beat the year before, 2022–2025.

EBIT margin trend Weak−8.2 ptsFrom 11.9% in 2022 to 3.7% in 2025.

Piotroski's tests, one by one (6 passed of 9)

PASS
Made a profit Return on assets 1.9% in 2025
A company that loses money on its assets is using up its owners' capital.
PASS
Operations brought in cash Operating cash flow EUR 18,006 mn in 2025
Profit has to arrive as cash in the end, and cash flow is harder to dress up than profit.
FAIL
Return on assets improved 1.9% vs 2024's 3.9%
Rising profitability is one of the clearest signs a business is getting stronger.
PASS
Cash from operations beat profit Cash EUR 18,006 mn vs profit EUR 5,141 mn
When cash lags profit, earnings may rest on generous accounting or customers who pay late.
PASS
Long-term debt fell relative to assets Long-term debt 19.8% of average assets vs 2024's 23.0%
More debt leaves less room for error when business slows.
PASS
Short-term liquidity improved Current ratio 1.38 vs 2024's 1.36
More short-term assets per rupee of bills due within a year means less risk of a cash squeeze.
PASS
No new shares issued Diluted shares −4.0% vs 2024
Issuing shares shrinks each owner's slice and can mean the company could not fund itself.
FAIL
Gross margin improved Gross margin 16.9% vs 2024's 19.6%
A higher gross margin points to pricing power or falling costs.
FAIL
Assets worked harder (turnover up) Revenue ÷ assets 0.50x vs 2024's 0.55x
More sales from the same assets means the business uses its capital better.

F-score by year: 2023 7/9 · 2024 5/9

How the Altman and Beneish scores are built

Altman Z'' = 2.45 (grey)
Ratio	Value	Weight	Adds
Working capital ÷ total assets	0.111	6.56	0.73
Retained earnings ÷ total assets	0.304	3.26	0.99
Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets	0.019	6.72	0.13
Book equity ÷ total liabilities	0.578	1.05	0.61

2025 figures. Safe above 2.60, grey zone 1.10 to 2.60, distress below 1.10.

Z'' by year: 2022 2.19 · 2023 2.48 · 2024 2.47

Beneish M = -2.78
Index	Value	Manipulators	Others
Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI)	0.952	1.465	1.031
Gross margin slipping (GMI)	1.162	1.193	1.014
More hard-to-value assets (AQI)	0.981	1.254	1.039
Sales growth (SGI)	0.908	1.607	1.134
Depreciation slowing (DEPI)	0.884	1.077	1.001
Overheads vs sales (SGAI)	1.072	1.041	1.054
Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA)	-0.050	0.031	0.018
Leverage rising (LVGI)	0.957	1.111	1.037

2025 against 2024. Above −1.78 the pattern resembles companies later found to have manipulated earnings; some analysts use a stricter −2.22.

How to read this

Piotroski F-score (Joseph Piotroski, 2000): nine pass-or-fail tests of profitability, debt, liquidity and efficiency, each comparing the latest year with the one before. 7 or more is strong; 3 or fewer is weak.

Altman Z'' (Edward Altman, 1995, the version for non-manufacturers and emerging markets): combines working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and book equity relative to the balance sheet. Above 2.60 is the safe zone, below 1.10 the distress zone.

Beneish M-score (Messod Beneish, 1999): eight ratios that, in his study, separated companies later found to have manipulated earnings. Above −1.78 resembles that pattern. It is a prompt to read the notes to the accounts, not an accusation.

Grade: a 0 to 100 blend (Piotroski 40%, Altman 20%, Beneish 15%, the ratios 25%, re-weighted when a part is missing): A from 80, B from 65, C from 50, D from 35, E below.

All three screens were built on US companies and annual accounts from Yahoo Finance, which can be incomplete. Lenders, insurers and holding companies get financial-firm ratios instead of the Altman and Beneish screens.

Not available from the data: stock-based pay.

What analysts expect

Price targets and ratings from the brokers' analysts who cover the stock, as Yahoo collects them. Their opinion, not this app's; set against the model so you can see where you differ.

20 analysts' average 12-month target is €51.16, +25.8% against today's €40.68 (median €51.00). The range runs from €32.00 to €73.80.

Ratings this month: 11 buy, 8 hold, 2 sell; the average works out to "Buy" (2.3 on a 1 to 5 scale, 1 = strong buy).

Your value estimate of €138 is 170% above the analysts' average: a big gap is worth explaining, it usually comes down to growth or margin assumptions.

Targets are usually for 12 months ahead and tend to run optimistic; brokers that cover a company often do business with it. Counts and targets come from different updates, so they may not match exactly.

Risk and likely range

How much the shares have swung and how far they have fallen over five years. Risk repeats far more reliably than direction, so this is the honest kind of forecast: how far the price may move, not which way.

Loading five years of prices…

What the price implies

A reverse DCF: the constant revenue growth, or the constant EBIT margin, that makes the DCF equal today's price, holding everything else in your base case.

Implied revenue growth, a year–Your base case averages 2.5%. No growth rate between −60% and +100% matches the price.

Implied EBIT margin5.3%Your base case averages 3.7%; the last reported year was 3.7%.

What you'd earn at today's price

The yearly return on the whole business at today's price if your base case comes true, against the return the model requires and what a government bond pays.

Context

No expected return: the DCF does not give a usable value with these inputs.

Expected returnif your base case comes trueNot available–
Required return (WACC)what the model discounts at6.4%
Government bondwhat the EUR 10-year government bond pays4.9%

What the price pays for

Today's business, no growth0%€0.00 a share: earnings power value

Future growth100%€40.68 a share

Earnings yield13.9%€5.66 trailing EPS ÷ price

Free cash flow yield7.4%2026E forecast ÷ market value

10-year bond4.9%interest a year

Cost of equity9.8%what shareholders require

Favourable

Every €100 of share price buys €13.92 of today's profit a year, more than the €4.93 of interest the bond pays, though profit is less certain than interest.

How these are worked out

Expected return (an internal rate of return). Imagine buying the whole company at today's price: its shares and its debt, less its cash. The expected return is the yearly rate that makes the free cash flows in your base case, plus the value after 2030E growing at 3.0%, add up to exactly today's price. When it is above the WACC, the price sits below your DCF value. It only comes true if the forecast does.

Earnings power value. What the business is worth if its last reported operating profit never grows or shrinks (a simplified version of Bruce Greenwald's method). It treats depreciation as the spending needed to stand still, and uses reported rather than average profit, so one unusual year moves it.

2025 operating profit (EBIT), EUR mn: 4,870
After tax at 24.1%: 3,696
Held flat for ever: ÷ WACC of 6.4%: 57,447
+ Cash − debt, leases, minorities and dividends since the balance sheet: -67,150
÷ Shares, per share: -€10.22

Earnings yield is the profit a year you buy with each unit of price (the P/E turned upside down). Free cash flow yield is the same idea with next year's forecast cash flow.

Show as table

Measure	Value
Expected return (IRR), base case	–
Required return (WACC)	6.4%
Expected minus required	–
Cost of equity	9.8%
10-year government bond	4.9%
Earnings power value per share	-€10.22
Share of price paying for growth	100%
Earnings yield	13.9%
Free cash flow yield	7.4%

Three scenarios

Revenue path for each scenario and its value per share with the same WACC and terminal growth.

Bear · 25%-€47.30-216.3% vs price

Base · 50%-€10.22-125.1% vs price

Bull · 25%€51.84+27.4% vs price

Probability-weighted-€3.98-109.8% vs price

ReportedBearBaseBull

Show as table

Revenue, EUR mn	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E
Reported	150,017	152,390	145,594	132,214
Bear					123,885	123,637	124,255	125,870	128,388
Base					127,851	131,431	136,031	141,880	148,974
Bull					131,817	139,463	148,528	159,370	172,120

Monte Carlo

2,000 simulated futures around your base case. Each run shifts growth, margin, WACC and terminal growth at random using the spreads below (one standard deviation).

Growth spread (± pts)Margin spread (± pts)WACC spread (± pts)Terminal growth spread (± pts)

Worth more than the price20%of runs above €40.68

Median outcome-€10.02-124.6% vs price

Downside (10th pct)-€76.351 run in 10 is lower

Upside (90th pct)€74.551 run in 10 is higher

Runs below today's priceRuns above it

Free cash flow, base case

FCF = EBIT × (1 − tax) + D&A − capex − increase in working capital, discounted at the WACC from today to each fiscal year end.

Free cash flowPresent value

EUR mn	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E
Revenue	127,851	131,431	136,031	141,880	148,974
EBIT	4,730	4,863	5,033	5,250	5,512
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax)	3,590	3,691	3,820	3,984	4,184
+ D&A	6,009	6,177	6,393	6,668	7,002
− Capex	7,415	7,492	7,618	7,803	8,045
− Increase in working capital	-654	537	690	877	1,064
Free cash flow	2,839	1,840	1,906	1,972	2,077
Present value	2,810	1,711	1,665	1,619	1,602
Years to year end (t)	0.16	1.16	2.16	3.16	4.16

From cash flows to a share price

Enterprise value plus cash, minus debt, leases, minority interests and cash already returned to shareholders since the balance sheet, divided by the shares.

Present value of FCF: 9,407
Present value of terminal value: 48,039
Enterprise value: 57,446
+ Cash and short-term investments (31 Dec 2025): 19,422
− Borrowings: 80,278
− Lease liabilities: 1,989
− Minority interests: 983
− Dividends since the balance sheet: 3,322
Equity value: -9,705
÷ Shares outstanding: 949.23 mn
Value per share: -€10.22

All amounts in EUR mn. Dividends with ex-dates after 2025-12-31: 2026-04-17 (3.50 per share).

Terminal value share of enterprise value83.6%Above 75%: most of the value comes after the forecast years.

Sensitivity: WACC against terminal growth

DCF value per share, base case. Blue cells sit above today's price, red cells below; the outlined cell is your current pair.

g ↓ · WACC →	5.43%	5.93%	6.43%	6.93%	7.43%
2.0%	-€8.53	-€16.13	-€22.02	-€26.71	-€30.54
2.5%	€0.66	-€9.38	-€16.87	-€22.67	-€27.29
3.0%	€13.61	-€0.34	-€10.22	-€17.60	-€23.31
3.5%	€33.26	€12.42	-€1.31	-€11.05	-€18.31
4.0%	€66.60	€31.78	€11.26	-€2.27	-€11.86

Peers

Found from Yahoo's related stocks in the same industry; multiples rebuilt here so currencies match. Untick a peer to drop it, or add your own.

Company	In median	EV/EBITDA	P/E	EV/Sales	P/B	Op. margin	Rev. growth
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMW.DE Auto Manufacturers		9.8x	5.5x	1.1x	0.4x	5.2%	-7.9%
Volkswagen AG VOW3.DE Auto Manufacturers		13.6x	32.4x	0.8x	0.2x	-7.8%	-6.3%
Porsche Automobil Holding SE PAH3.DE Auto Manufacturers		-223.1x	82.5x	–	0.2x	0.0%	–
Volkswagen AG VOW.DE Auto Manufacturers		13.6x	32.2x	0.8x	0.2x	-7.8%	-6.3%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911.DE Auto Manufacturers		9.2x	19.5x	1.3x	1.9x	3.5%	-7.5%
Median of included	5	11.7x	32.2x	0.9x	0.2x
Mercedes-Benz Group AG	–	7.8x	7.2x	0.8x	0.4x	3.7%	-9.2%

Add a peer

Implied value per share	25th pct	Median	75th pct
EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash	€66.09 (9.7x)	€94.12 (11.7x)	€120 (13.6x)
P/E × earnings per share	€110 (19.5x)	€182 (32.2x)	€184 (32.4x)
P/B × book value per share	€19.91 (0.2x)	€21.38 (0.2x)	€35.36 (0.4x)
EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only)	€38.65 (0.8x)	€57.23 (0.9x)	€84.72 (1.1x)
Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices)		€138.29

Against its own past

Is today's multiple high or low for this stock? Its P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) or P/B (price ÷ book value per share) month by month, against the range it has traded in.

Loading ten years of monthly prices…

Pitch summary

Three pieces of evidence that lead to a view. The client summary button copies all of this as text.

1 · Margins+2 bpsEBIT margin change from the last reported year (3.7%) to 2030E (3.7%)

2 · Valuation vs peers-33.1%Mercedes-Benz Group AG EV/EBITDA against the peer median; negative means cheaper

3 · Cash7.4%FCF yield: 2026E free cash flow ÷ market value at today's price

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE), valuation summary, 1 Nov 2026
Value estimate €138.00 (+239.2% vs today's price of €40.68).

• DCF (base case): not meaningful with these inputs per share. WACC 6.43%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 84% of enterprise value.
• Peers: €138.29 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 5 peers).
• Scenarios: bear -€47.30, base -€10.22, bull €51.84; probability-weighted -€3.98.
• What the price implies: outside the range tested for 2026E–2030E, against 2.5% in this forecast.
• Monte Carlo: 20% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% -€76.35 to €74.55.
• Key assumptions (base): revenue growth -3.3% → 2.8% → 3.5% → 4.3% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 3.7% to 3.7%; tax 24.1%.
• Checks: to review: The DCF gives a positive value per share.

Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 1 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.

Model checks

6 pass, 1 to review.

PASSWACC is above terminal growth g
CHECKThe DCF gives a positive value per shareA negative value usually means capex or working capital stays too high for ever, or the bridge holds a finance arm's debt. Until fixed, the price target uses peer multiples only.
PASSShares × price is within 2% of the reported market cap
PASSScenario values are in order: bear ≤ base ≤ bull
PASSAt least three peers are in the medians
PASSTerminal value is less than 85% of enterprise value
PASSThe forecast starts after the last reported year

Company data

What the model uses, from Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices). Edit any number that looks wrong; your edits stay in this browser and are marked.

EUR mn	2022	2023	2024	2025	Avg ratio
Revenue					growth -4.0%
EBIT (operating profit)					margin 8.9%
D&A					4.7%
Profit before tax
Tax					rate 24.1%
Capex					5.8%
Increase in working capital					– of Δrev

Cash and short-term investments (EUR mn)
Borrowings (EUR mn)
Lease liabilities (EUR mn)
Minority interests (EUR mn)
Dividends since the balance sheet (EUR mn)

Revenue, trailing 12 months (EUR mn)
EBITDA, trailing 12 months (EUR mn)
Net income, trailing 12 months (EUR mn)
Shares outstanding (mn)

Years are calendar fiscal years. Shares: 949,232,324. Price €40.68 at Fri, 30 Oct 2026 16:38:38 GMT.

Loading prices, five years of statements and peers…

The first visit to a stock takes a few seconds; repeat visits are cached.

Driver

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Revenue growth2022–2025 avg -4.0%

EBIT margin2022–2025 avg 8.9%

Tax rate2022–2025 avg 24.1%

D&A % of revenue2022–2025 avg 4.7%

Capex % of revenue2022–2025 avg 5.8%

Working capital % of revenue change2022–2025 avg –

Range

Low

Mid

High

DCF scenarios (bear to bull)

-€47.30

-€10.22

€51.84

DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point)

-€30.54

-€10.22

€66.60

Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs)

-€76.35

-€10.02

€74.55

EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile)

€66.09

€94.12

€120

P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile)

€110

€182

€184

Analyst targets (20 analysts, low to high)

€32.00

€51.16

€73.80

52-week share price (trading range)

€38.89

–

€62.34

Altman Z'' = 2.45 (grey)

Ratio

Value

Weight

Adds

Working capital ÷ total assets

0.111

6.56

0.73

Retained earnings ÷ total assets

0.304

3.26

0.99

Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets

0.019

6.72

0.13

Book equity ÷ total liabilities

0.578

1.05

0.61

Beneish M = -2.78

Index

Value

Manipulators

Others

Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI)

0.952

1.465

1.031

Gross margin slipping (GMI)

1.162

1.193

1.014

More hard-to-value assets (AQI)

0.981

1.254

1.039

Sales growth (SGI)

0.908

1.607

1.134

Depreciation slowing (DEPI)

0.884

1.077

1.001

Overheads vs sales (SGAI)

1.072

1.041

1.054

Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA)

-0.050

0.031

0.018

Leverage rising (LVGI)

0.957

1.111

1.037

Measure

Value

Expected return (IRR), base case

–

Required return (WACC)

6.4%

Expected minus required

–

Cost of equity

9.8%

10-year government bond

4.9%

Earnings power value per share

-€10.22

Share of price paying for growth

100%

Earnings yield

13.9%

Free cash flow yield

7.4%

Revenue, EUR mn

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Reported

150,017

152,390

145,594

132,214

Bear

123,885

123,637

124,255

125,870

128,388

Base

127,851

131,431

136,031

141,880

148,974

Bull

131,817

139,463

148,528

159,370

172,120

EUR mn

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Revenue

127,851

131,431

136,031

141,880

148,974

EBIT

4,730

4,863

5,033

5,250

5,512

NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax)

3,590

3,691

3,820

3,984

4,184

+ D&A

6,009

6,177

6,393

6,668

7,002

− Capex

7,415

7,492

7,618

7,803

8,045

− Increase in working capital

-654

537

690

877

1,064

Free cash flow

2,839

1,840

1,906

1,972

2,077

Present value

2,810

1,711

1,665

1,619

1,602

Years to year end (t)

0.16

1.16

2.16

3.16

4.16

g ↓ · WACC →

5.43%

5.93%

6.43%

6.93%

7.43%

2.0%

-€8.53

-€16.13

-€22.02

-€26.71

-€30.54

2.5%

€0.66

-€9.38

-€16.87

-€22.67

-€27.29

3.0%

€13.61

-€0.34

-€10.22

-€17.60

-€23.31

3.5%

€33.26

€12.42

-€1.31

-€11.05

-€18.31

4.0%

€66.60

€31.78

€11.26

-€2.27

-€11.86

Company

In median

EV/EBITDA

P/E

EV/Sales

P/B

Op. margin

Rev. growth

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMW.DE

Auto Manufacturers

9.8x

5.5x

1.1x

0.4x

5.2%

-7.9%

Volkswagen AG VOW3.DE

Auto Manufacturers

13.6x

32.4x

0.8x

0.2x

-7.8%

-6.3%

Porsche Automobil Holding SE PAH3.DE

Auto Manufacturers

-223.1x

82.5x

–

0.2x

0.0%

–

Volkswagen AG VOW.DE

Auto Manufacturers

13.6x

32.2x

0.8x

0.2x

-7.8%

-6.3%

Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911.DE

Auto Manufacturers

9.2x

19.5x

1.3x

1.9x

3.5%

-7.5%

Median of included

11.7x

32.2x

0.9x

0.2x

Mercedes-Benz Group AG

–

7.8x

7.2x

0.8x

0.4x

3.7%

-9.2%

Implied value per share

25th pct

Median

75th pct

EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash

€66.09 (9.7x)

€94.12 (11.7x)

€120 (13.6x)

P/E × earnings per share

€110 (19.5x)

€182 (32.2x)

€184 (32.4x)

P/B × book value per share

€19.91 (0.2x)

€21.38 (0.2x)

€35.36 (0.4x)

EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only)

€38.65 (0.8x)

€57.23 (0.9x)

€84.72 (1.1x)

Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices)

€138.29

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE), valuation summary, 1 Nov 2026 Value estimate €138.00 (+239.2% vs today's price of €40.68). • DCF (base case): not meaningful with these inputs per share. WACC 6.43%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 84% of enterprise value. • Peers: €138.29 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 5 peers). • Scenarios: bear -€47.30, base -€10.22, bull €51.84; probability-weighted -€3.98. • What the price implies: outside the range tested for 2026E–2030E, against 2.5% in this forecast. • Monte Carlo: 20% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% -€76.35 to €74.55. • Key assumptions (base): revenue growth -3.3% → 2.8% → 3.5% → 4.3% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 3.7% to 3.7%; tax 24.1%. • Checks: to review: The DCF gives a positive value per share. Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 1 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.

EUR mn

2022

2023

2024

2025

Avg ratio

Revenue

growth -4.0%

EBIT (operating profit)

margin 8.9%

D&A

4.7%

Profit before tax

Tax

rate 24.1%

Capex

5.8%

Increase in working capital

– of Δrev