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LSE · United Kingdom · Insurance - Diversified
The model's numbers as sentences. Every figure comes from the live data and your inputs, so the story changes when you change an input.
Valued above its peers on earnings
At 39.3x trailing earnings, Aviva plc trades 255% above the median of 4 peers (11.1x).
At 2.1x book value, Aviva plc trades roughly in line with the median of 4 peers (2.3x).
Return on equity was 8.1% in 2025, below the 10.3% a year shareholders require (the cost of equity). A simple rule, fair P/B = (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g), gives about 0.7x against 2.1x today, if that return lasts.
Earnings yield is 2.5% (trailing earnings ÷ price) against 4.9% on a 10-year government bond: less profit per pound of price than the bond pays, so the price counts on earnings growing.
Business health grade C (60 out of 100): shows a mixed picture, with 1 strength and 1 red flag (top concern: low return for shareholders).
Educational, not investment advice. “Favourable” means the numbers lean in today's price's favour; “Caution” means the price asks a lot of the future.
Every valuation range side by side, against today's price and the value estimate. Per share, in GBP.
| Range | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B comps (25th to 75th percentile) | £5.20 | £8.09 | £14.59 |
| P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile) | £1.77 | £2.07 | £3.32 |
| Analyst targets (16 analysts, low to high) | £5.43 | £7.45 | £8.20 |
| 52-week share price (trading range) | £5.91 | – | £7.41 |
Is this a good, honest business, not just a cheap one? Published screens on the reported annual accounts (2022–2025), plus plain ratios. Screens, not verdicts: read the accounts before relying on any of them.
Grade C (60/100): shows a mixed picture, with 1 strength and 1 red flag (top concern: low return for shareholders).
Piotroski F-score (Joseph Piotroski, 2000): nine pass-or-fail tests of profitability, debt, liquidity and efficiency, each comparing the latest year with the one before. 7 or more is strong; 3 or fewer is weak.
Altman Z'' (Edward Altman, 1995, the version for non-manufacturers and emerging markets): combines working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and book equity relative to the balance sheet. Above 2.60 is the safe zone, below 1.10 the distress zone.
Beneish M-score (Messod Beneish, 1999): eight ratios that, in his study, separated companies later found to have manipulated earnings. Above −1.78 resembles that pattern. It is a prompt to read the notes to the accounts, not an accusation.
Grade: a 0 to 100 blend (Piotroski 40%, Altman 20%, Beneish 15%, the ratios 25%, re-weighted when a part is missing): A from 80, B from 65, C from 50, D from 35, E below.
All three screens were built on US companies and annual accounts from Yahoo Finance, which can be incomplete. Lenders, insurers and holding companies get financial-firm ratios instead of the Altman and Beneish screens.
Price targets and ratings from the brokers' analysts who cover the stock, as Yahoo collects them. Their opinion, not this app's; set against the model so you can see where you differ.
16 analysts' average 12-month target is £7.45, +1.6% against today's £7.34 (median £7.74). The range runs from £5.43 to £8.20.
Your value estimate of £5.08 is 32% below the analysts' average: a big gap is worth explaining, it usually comes down to growth or margin assumptions.
Targets are usually for 12 months ahead and tend to run optimistic; brokers that cover a company often do business with it. Counts and targets come from different updates, so they may not match exactly.
How much the shares have swung and how far they have fallen over five years. Risk repeats far more reliably than direction, so this is the honest kind of forecast: how far the price may move, not which way.
Loading five years of prices…
For a lender, an insurer or an investment holding company, debt is raw material rather than financing, so free cash flow to the firm and the WACC bridge don't describe the business. The value above uses peer P/E and P/B only.
Found from Yahoo's related stocks in the same industry; multiples rebuilt here so currencies match. Untick a peer to drop it, or add your own.
| Company | In median | EV/EBITDA | P/E | EV/Sales | P/B | Op. margin | Rev. growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legal & General Group Plc LGEN.L Asset Management | 22.3x | 24.5x | 2.4x | 7.9x | 13.4% | 15.3% | |
| M&G plc MNG.L Asset Management | 3.5x | – | 1.2x | 2.9x | 15.0% | -6.6% | |
| Barclays PLC BARC.L Banks - Diversified | – | 7.8x | 1.7x | 0.9x | 32.2% | 4.9% | |
| HSBC Holdings plc HSBA.L Banks - Diversified | – | 11.1x | -0.7x | 1.7x | 52.3% | 6.0% | |
| Median of included | 4 | 12.9x | 11.1x | 1.7x | 2.3x | ||
| Aviva plc | – | 3.6x | 39.3x | 0.4x | 2.1x | 3.2% | 43.9% |
| Implied value per share | 25th pct | Median | 75th pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash | £12.13 (8.2x) | £16.97 (12.9x) | £21.81 (17.6x) |
| P/E × earnings per share | £1.77 (9.5x) | £2.07 (11.1x) | £3.32 (17.8x) |
| P/B × book value per share | £5.20 (1.5x) | £8.09 (2.3x) | £14.59 (4.2x) |
| EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only) | £18.84 (1.5x) | £21.51 (1.7x) | £24.87 (2.1x) |
| Peer value (average of median P/E and median P/B prices) | £5.08 |
Is today's multiple high or low for this stock? Its P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) or P/B (price ÷ book value per share) month by month, against the range it has traded in.
Loading ten years of monthly prices…
Three pieces of evidence that lead to a view. The client summary button copies all of this as text.
Aviva plc (AV.L), valuation summary, 2 Nov 2026 Value estimate £5.08 (-30.8% vs today's price of £7.34). • DCF (base case): £15.35 per share. WACC 8.90%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 77% of enterprise value. • Peers: £5.08 per share (average of median P/E and median P/B prices; 4 peers). • Scenarios: bear £8.08, base £15.35, bull £23.42; probability-weighted £15.55. • What the price implies: -12.0% revenue growth a year for 2026E–2030E, against 11.5% in this forecast. • Monte Carlo: 90% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% £7.50 to £24.44. • Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 21.3% → 13.1% → 10.4% → 7.7% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 3.2% to 3.2%; tax 26.4%. • Checks: all pass. Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 2 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.
7 pass, 0 to review.
What the model uses, from Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices). Edit any number that looks wrong; your edits stay in this browser and are marked.
| GBP mn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Avg ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | growth 21.3% | ||||
| EBIT (operating profit) | margin 3.7% | ||||
| D&A | 0.5% | ||||
| Profit before tax | |||||
| Tax | rate 26.4% | ||||
| Capex | 0.5% | ||||
| Increase in working capital | -107.5% of Δrev |
| Cash and short-term investments (GBP mn) | |
| Borrowings (GBP mn) | |
| Lease liabilities (GBP mn) | |
| Minority interests (GBP mn) | |
| Dividends since the balance sheet (GBP mn) |
| Revenue, trailing 12 months (GBP mn) | |
| EBITDA, trailing 12 months (GBP mn) | |
| Net income, trailing 12 months (GBP mn) | |
| Shares outstanding (mn) |
Years are calendar fiscal years. Shares: 2,991,050,330. Price £7.34 at Fri, 30 Oct 2026 16:47:03 GMT.