Tokyo · Japan · Auto Manufacturers

Toyota Motor Corporation 7203.T

Price ¥3,070Mkt cap 36,159 JPY bnReports in JPYData 1 Nov 2026

Value estimate · 50% DCF, 50% peers¥1,700-44.6%-44.6% vs ¥3,070

DCF (base)¥2,105-31.4% vs price · WACC 5.8%

Peers¥1,2945 peers · median EV/EBITDA 4.2x

Price implies1.4%revenue growth a year; your case 7.4%

Chance worth more39%of 2,000 simulated outcomes

Scenario

drives the result

Scenario probabilities (%)

BearBaseBull

Use the probability-weighted DCF instead of the live scenario

Forecast drivers

Base case, %

Driver	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Revenue growthFY23–FY26 avg 11.1%
EBIT marginFY23–FY26 avg 9.2%
Tax rateFY23–FY26 avg 26.8%
D&A % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 4.9%
Capex % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 10.6%
Working capital % of revenue changeFY23–FY26 avg 57.4%

No usable consensus estimate: the first years start from history. The base case fades to 5.0% by year five; bear and bull sit 3 points of growth and 1.5 points of margin either side.

Discount rate

WACC build

JPY 10-year government bond yield (%)Estimate: US 10-year Treasury yield. Replace it with the JPY 10-year government bond yield.

Less: country default spread (%)0 when the bond above is default-free

Beta2 years, weekly vs Nikkei 225: 0.43 (R² 0.10)

Equity risk premium (%)Damodaran country risk table (January 2026), Japan, rating A1

Pre-tax cost of debt (%)starter: bond yield + 1.5 points

Terminal growth g (%)must stay below WACC

Risk-free rate: 4.93%
Cost of equity: 7.14%
Weight of equity: 45.6%
After-tax cost of debt: 4.68%
WACC: 5.80%

Result rules

set before you look

DCF weight (%)peers get 50%

Share price (JPY)Yahoo, 30 Oct 2026 (delayed)

Check before you rely on thisYahoo's consensus revenue growth (195%) looks inconsistent with the reported history, so the forecast starts from history instead.The risk-free rate is an estimate for JPY: enter the local 10-year government bond yield.Debt is 119% of market value. If part of it funds a lending or finance arm (car makers, conglomerates), the DCF will understate equity value: check the bridge.

In plain English

The model's numbers as sentences. Every figure comes from the live data and your inputs, so the story changes when you change an input.

Priced for slower growth than it has delivered

Favourable
At today's price of ¥3,070, the market is pricing in revenue growth of about 1.4% a year for FY27E–FY31E, holding the rest of your base case. Toyota Motor Corporation's revenue grew 10.9% a year between FY23 and FY26, so the price asks for less than it has delivered.
Caution
Your base case assumes 7.4% revenue growth a year on average, more than the price implies, and values the shares at ¥2,105, 31% below today's price.
Context
If your base case comes true, the whole business would return about 5.4% a year at today's price, about the same as the 5.8% a year the model requires (the WACC).
Context
About 57% of today's price pays for future growth. The other 43%, ¥1,308 a share, is what FY26 operating profit after tax is worth if it never grows.
Caution
Across 2,000 simulated futures around your base case, the middle 80% of values runs from -¥1,373 to ¥8,584 a share, and 39% of them are worth more than today's price.
Favourable
Business health grade B (78 out of 100): looks mostly healthy, with 5 strengths and 2 red flags (top concern: debt is high).

Educational, not investment advice. “Favourable” means the numbers lean in today's price's favour; “Caution” means the price asks a lot of the future.

Football field

Every valuation range side by side, against today's price and the value estimate. Per share, in JPY.

Show as table

Range	Low	Mid	High
DCF scenarios (bear to bull)	¥1,270	¥2,105	¥3,824
DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point)	-¥109	¥2,105	¥15,376
Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs)	-¥1,373	¥2,124	¥8,584
EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile)	-¥1,708	-¥366	¥3,522
P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile)	¥2,695	¥2,954	¥5,579
Analyst targets (19 analysts, low to high)	¥2,930	¥3,677	¥4,900
52-week share price (trading range)	¥2,686	–	¥4,000

Business health

Is this a good, honest business, not just a cheap one? Published screens on the reported annual accounts (FY23–FY26), plus plain ratios. Screens, not verdicts: read the accounts before relying on any of them.

GradeB78 / 100

Grade B (78/100): looks mostly healthy, with 5 strengths and 2 red flags (top concern: debt is high).

Piotroski F-score6 / 9nine tests of strength

Altman Z''2.66Safe zone · safe above 2.60

Beneish M-score−2.34No flag · cut-off −1.78

Red flags 2

Debt is high: net debt is 4.3x EBITDA in FY26. Carmakers and conglomerates often carry a lending arm's debt here, which overstates the burden.
Low return on capital: ROCE was 5.2% in FY26, below 10%.

Strengths 5

Profit is backed by cash: operations produced 102% of reported profit over 4 years.
Comfortable balance sheet: Altman Z'' is 2.66, in the safe zone (above 2.60).
Steady growth: revenue rose in each of the last 3 years.
Share count shrinking 1.5% a year, so each share owns more of the business.
Interest is easily covered: operating profit is 62 times interest in FY26.

Cash conversion Good102%Operating cash flow ÷ net profit, FY23–FY26. 90% or more means profit is backed by cash.

Return on capital (ROCE) Weak5.2%EBIT ÷ (total assets − current liabilities), FY26. 15% or more is strong. A lending arm's loan book inflates capital employed and pulls this down.

Return on equity Fair10.1%Net profit ÷ average shareholders' equity, FY26. 15% or more is strong.

Interest cover Good62.5xEBIT ÷ interest cost, FY26. 5x or more is comfortable; below 2x is risky.

Net debt ÷ EBITDA Weak4.3x(Borrowings − cash) ÷ (EBIT + D&A), FY26. 1.5x or less is comfortable; above 3.5x is heavy. Carmakers and conglomerates often carry a lending arm's debt here, which overstates the burden.

Receivable days Good112 daysReceivables ÷ revenue × 365. Up from 108 days in FY23; a rise of more than 20 days is a warning.

Share count change Good−1.5% a yearWeighted diluted shares, a year, FY23–FY26. Above 2% a year is heavy dilution; shares issued for mergers count too.

Paid out to shareholders Info24.9%Dividends and buybacks ÷ net profit, FY23–FY26. Neither high nor low is good on its own: it depends on how well the company could reinvest.

Stock-based pay n/a–Stock-based compensation not reported.

Years of revenue growth Good3 of 3Years in which revenue beat the year before, FY23–FY26.

EBIT margin trend Fair+0.1 ptsFrom 7.3% in FY23 to 7.4% in FY26.

Piotroski's tests, one by one (6 passed of 9)

PASS
Made a profit Return on assets 4.1% in FY26
A company that loses money on its assets is using up its owners' capital.
PASS
Operations brought in cash Operating cash flow JPY 5,473 bn in FY26
Profit has to arrive as cash in the end, and cash flow is harder to dress up than profit.
FAIL
Return on assets improved 4.1% vs FY25's 5.3%
Rising profitability is one of the clearest signs a business is getting stronger.
PASS
Cash from operations beat profit Cash JPY 5,473 bn vs profit JPY 3,848 bn
When cash lags profit, earnings may rest on generous accounting or customers who pay late.
FAIL
Long-term debt fell relative to assets Long-term debt 25.2% of average assets vs FY25's 24.5%
More debt leaves less room for error when business slows.
PASS
Short-term liquidity improved Current ratio 1.27 vs FY25's 1.26
More short-term assets per rupee of bills due within a year means less risk of a cash squeeze.
PASS
No new shares issued Diluted shares −1.7% vs FY25
Issuing shares shrinks each owner's slice and can mean the company could not fund itself.
FAIL
Gross margin improved Gross margin 16.7% vs FY25's 19.9%
A higher gross margin points to pricing power or falling costs.
PASS
Assets worked harder (turnover up) Revenue ÷ assets 0.54x vs FY25's 0.53x
More sales from the same assets means the business uses its capital better.

F-score by year: FY24 7/9 · FY25 5/9

How the Altman and Beneish scores are built

Altman Z'' = 2.66 (safe)
Ratio	Value	Weight	Adds
Working capital ÷ total assets	0.087	6.56	0.57
Retained earnings ÷ total assets	0.367	3.26	1.20
Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets	0.036	6.72	0.24
Book equity ÷ total liabilities	0.619	1.05	0.65

FY26 figures. Safe above 2.60, grey zone 1.10 to 2.60, distress below 1.10.

Z'' by year: FY23 2.37 · FY24 2.64 · FY25 2.79

Beneish M = -2.34
Index	Value	Manipulators	Others
Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI)	1.058	1.465	1.031
Gross margin slipping (GMI)	1.194	1.193	1.014
More hard-to-value assets (AQI)	0.977	1.254	1.039
Sales growth (SGI)	1.055	1.607	1.134
Depreciation slowing (DEPI)	1.055	1.077	1.001
Overheads vs sales (SGAI)	0.931	1.041	1.054
Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA)	-0.015	0.031	0.018
Leverage rising (LVGI)	1.002	1.111	1.037

FY26 against FY25. Above −1.78 the pattern resembles companies later found to have manipulated earnings; some analysts use a stricter −2.22.

How to read this

Piotroski F-score (Joseph Piotroski, 2000): nine pass-or-fail tests of profitability, debt, liquidity and efficiency, each comparing the latest year with the one before. 7 or more is strong; 3 or fewer is weak.

Altman Z'' (Edward Altman, 1995, the version for non-manufacturers and emerging markets): combines working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and book equity relative to the balance sheet. Above 2.60 is the safe zone, below 1.10 the distress zone.

Beneish M-score (Messod Beneish, 1999): eight ratios that, in his study, separated companies later found to have manipulated earnings. Above −1.78 resembles that pattern. It is a prompt to read the notes to the accounts, not an accusation.

Grade: a 0 to 100 blend (Piotroski 40%, Altman 20%, Beneish 15%, the ratios 25%, re-weighted when a part is missing): A from 80, B from 65, C from 50, D from 35, E below.

All three screens were built on US companies and annual accounts from Yahoo Finance, which can be incomplete. Lenders, insurers and holding companies get financial-firm ratios instead of the Altman and Beneish screens.

Not available from the data: stock-based pay.

What analysts expect

Price targets and ratings from the brokers' analysts who cover the stock, as Yahoo collects them. Their opinion, not this app's; set against the model so you can see where you differ.

19 analysts' average 12-month target is ¥3,677, +19.8% against today's ¥3,070 (median ¥3,700). The range runs from ¥2,930 to ¥4,900.

Ratings this month: 14 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell; the average works out to "Buy" (1.7 on a 1 to 5 scale, 1 = strong buy).

Your value estimate of ¥1,700 is 54% below the analysts' average: a big gap is worth explaining, it usually comes down to growth or margin assumptions.

Targets are usually for 12 months ahead and tend to run optimistic; brokers that cover a company often do business with it. Counts and targets come from different updates, so they may not match exactly.

Risk and likely range

How much the shares have swung and how far they have fallen over five years. Risk repeats far more reliably than direction, so this is the honest kind of forecast: how far the price may move, not which way.

Loading five years of prices…

What the price implies

A reverse DCF: the constant revenue growth, or the constant EBIT margin, that makes the DCF equal today's price, holding everything else in your base case.

Implied revenue growth, a year1.4%Your base case averages 7.4%. The market expects less growth than you do.

Implied EBIT margin8.1%Your base case averages 7.4%; the last reported year was 7.4%.

What you'd earn at today's price

The yearly return on the whole business at today's price if your base case comes true, against the return the model requires and what a government bond pays.

Context

If your base case comes true, today's price earns about 5.4% a year, about the same as the 5.8% the model requires.

Expected returnif your base case comes true5.4%
Required return (WACC)what the model discounts at5.8%
Government bondwhat the JPY 10-year government bond pays4.9%

What the price pays for

Today's business, no growth43%¥1,308 a share: earnings power value

Future growth57%¥1,762 a share

Earnings yield12.4%¥380.69 trailing EPS ÷ price

Free cash flow yield-6.7%FY27E forecast ÷ market value

10-year bond4.9%interest a year

Cost of equity7.1%what shareholders require

Favourable

Every ¥100 of share price buys ¥12.40 of today's profit a year, more than the ¥4.93 of interest the bond pays, though profit is less certain than interest.

How these are worked out

Expected return (an internal rate of return). Imagine buying the whole company at today's price: its shares and its debt, less its cash. The expected return is the yearly rate that makes the free cash flows in your base case, plus the value after FY31E growing at 3.0%, add up to exactly today's price. When it is above the WACC, the price sits below your DCF value. It only comes true if the forecast does.

Earnings power value. What the business is worth if its last reported operating profit never grows or shrinks (a simplified version of Bruce Greenwald's method). It treats depreciation as the spending needed to stand still, and uses reported rather than average profit, so one unusual year moves it.

FY26 operating profit (EBIT), JPY bn: 3,766
After tax at 26.8%: 2,757
Held flat for ever: ÷ WACC of 5.8%: 47,507
+ Cash − debt, leases, minorities and dividends since the balance sheet: -32,107
÷ Shares, per share: ¥1,308

Earnings yield is the profit a year you buy with each unit of price (the P/E turned upside down). Free cash flow yield is the same idea with next year's forecast cash flow.

Show as table

Measure	Value
Expected return (IRR), base case	5.4%
Required return (WACC)	5.8%
Expected minus required	−0.4 pts
Cost of equity	7.1%
10-year government bond	4.9%
Earnings power value per share	¥1,308
Share of price paying for growth	57%
Earnings yield	12.4%
Free cash flow yield	-6.7%

Three scenarios

Revenue path for each scenario and its value per share with the same WACC and terminal growth.

Bear · 25%¥1,270-58.6% vs price

Base · 50%¥2,105-31.4% vs price

Bull · 25%¥3,824+24.6% vs price

Probability-weighted¥2,326-24.2% vs price

ReportedBearBaseBull

Show as table

Revenue, JPY bn	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Reported	37,154	45,095	48,037	50,685
Bear					54,790	57,585	59,888	61,685	62,918
Base					56,311	60,872	65,133	69,041	72,493
Bull					57,832	64,251	70,676	77,037	83,200

Monte Carlo

2,000 simulated futures around your base case. Each run shifts growth, margin, WACC and terminal growth at random using the spreads below (one standard deviation).

Growth spread (± pts)Margin spread (± pts)WACC spread (± pts)Terminal growth spread (± pts)

Worth more than the price39%of runs above ¥3,070

Median outcome¥2,124-30.8% vs price

Downside (10th pct)-¥1,3731 run in 10 is lower

Upside (90th pct)¥8,5841 run in 10 is higher

Runs below today's priceRuns above it

Free cash flow, base case

FCF = EBIT × (1 − tax) + D&A − capex − increase in working capital, discounted at the WACC from today to each fiscal year end.

Free cash flowPresent value

JPY bn	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	FY30E	FY31E
Revenue	56,311	60,872	65,133	69,041	72,493
EBIT	4,167	4,505	4,820	5,109	5,365
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax)	3,050	3,297	3,528	3,740	3,927
+ D&A	2,759	2,983	3,192	3,383	3,552
− Capex	5,969	5,722	5,276	4,764	4,060
− Increase in working capital	2,250	1,824	1,704	1,563	1,381
Free cash flow	-2,410	-1,266	-261	796	2,039
Present value	-2,355	-1,169	-227	657	1,589
Years to year end (t)	0.41	1.41	2.41	3.41	4.41

From cash flows to a share price

Enterprise value plus cash, minus debt, leases, minority interests and cash already returned to shareholders since the balance sheet, divided by the shares.

Present value of FCF: -1,506
Present value of terminal value: 58,407
Enterprise value: 56,901
+ Cash and short-term investments (31 Mar 2026): 16,642
− Borrowings: 42,494
− Lease liabilities: 711
− Minority interests: 1,101
− Dividends since the balance sheet: 4,443
Equity value: 24,793
÷ Shares outstanding: 11,778.07 mn
Value per share: ¥2,105

All amounts in JPY bn. Dividends with ex-dates after 2026-03-31: 2026-09-29 (50.00 per share); about 1,255 million shares bought back since then, valued at today's price.

Terminal value share of enterprise value102.6%Above 75%: most of the value comes after the forecast years.

Sensitivity: WACC against terminal growth

DCF value per share, base case. Blue cells sit above today's price, red cells below; the outlined cell is your current pair.

g ↓ · WACC →	4.80%	5.30%	5.80%	6.30%	6.80%
2.0%	¥2,272	¥1,404	¥766	¥277	-¥109
2.5%	¥3,414	¥2,188	¥1,334	¥706	¥225
3.0%	¥5,190	¥3,312	¥2,105	¥1,265	¥648
3.5%	¥8,329	¥5,059	¥3,211	¥2,024	¥1,198
4.0%	¥15,376	¥8,147	¥4,930	¥3,112	¥1,945

Peers

Found from Yahoo's related stocks in the same industry; multiples rebuilt here so currencies match. Untick a peer to drop it, or add your own.

Company	In median	EV/EBITDA	P/E	EV/Sales	P/B	Op. margin	Rev. growth
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. 7267.T Auto Manufacturers		12.3x	–	0.7x	0.6x	8.8%	13.5%
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. 7201.T Auto Manufacturers		16.3x	–	0.6x	0.2x	2.6%	9.5%
Mazda Motor Corporation 7261.T Auto Manufacturers		1.3x	6.4x	0.1x	0.4x	2.6%	16.9%
Subaru Corporation 7270.T Auto Manufacturers		1.3x	21.6x	0.1x	0.7x	3.4%	3.0%
Suzuki Motor Corporation 7269.T Auto Manufacturers		4.2x	7.8x	0.6x	1.1x	9.3%	22.0%
Median of included	5	4.2x	7.8x	0.6x	0.6x
Toyota Motor Corporation	–	11.4x	8.1x	1.2x	1.0x	7.4%	5.5%

Add a peer

Implied value per share	25th pct	Median	75th pct
EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash	-¥1,708 (1.3x)	-¥366 (4.2x)	¥3,522 (12.3x)
P/E × earnings per share	¥2,695 (7.1x)	¥2,954 (7.8x)	¥5,579 (14.7x)
P/B × book value per share	¥1,091 (0.4x)	¥1,723 (0.6x)	¥2,073 (0.7x)
EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only)	-¥1,987 (0.1x)	¥182 (0.6x)	¥492 (0.6x)
Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices)		¥1,294

Against its own past

Is today's multiple high or low for this stock? Its P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) or P/B (price ÷ book value per share) month by month, against the range it has traded in.

Loading ten years of monthly prices…

Pitch summary

Three pieces of evidence that lead to a view. The client summary button copies all of this as text.

1 · Margins-3 bpsEBIT margin change from the last reported year (7.4%) to FY31E (7.4%)

2 · Valuation vs peers+173.3%Toyota Motor Corporation EV/EBITDA against the peer median; negative means cheaper

3 · Cash-6.7%FCF yield: FY27E free cash flow ÷ market value at today's price

Toyota Motor Corporation (7203.T), valuation summary, 1 Nov 2026
Value estimate ¥1,700 (-44.6% vs today's price of ¥3,070).

• DCF (base case): ¥2,105 per share. WACC 5.80%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 103% of enterprise value.
• Peers: ¥1,294 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 5 peers).
• Scenarios: bear ¥1,270, base ¥2,105, bull ¥3,824; probability-weighted ¥2,326.
• What the price implies: 1.4% revenue growth a year for FY27E–FY31E, against 7.4% in this forecast.
• Monte Carlo: 39% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% -¥1,373 to ¥8,584.
• Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 11.1% → 8.1% → 7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 7.4% to 7.4%; tax 26.8%.
• Checks: to review: Terminal value is less than 85% of enterprise value.

Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 1 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.

Model checks

6 pass, 1 to review.

PASSWACC is above terminal growth g
PASSThe DCF gives a positive value per share
PASSShares × price is within 2% of the reported market cap
PASSScenario values are in order: bear ≤ base ≤ bull
PASSAt least three peers are in the medians
CHECKTerminal value is less than 85% of enterprise valueMost of the value sits after year 5: check terminal growth and the year-5 margin.
PASSThe forecast starts after the last reported year

Company data

What the model uses, from Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices). Edit any number that looks wrong; your edits stay in this browser and are marked.

JPY bn	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	Avg ratio
Revenue					growth 11.1%
EBIT (operating profit)					margin 9.2%
D&A					4.9%
Profit before tax
Tax					rate 26.8%
Capex					10.6%
Increase in working capital					57.4% of Δrev

Cash and short-term investments (JPY bn)
Borrowings (JPY bn)
Lease liabilities (JPY bn)
Minority interests (JPY bn)
Dividends since the balance sheet (JPY bn)

Revenue, trailing 12 months (JPY bn)
EBITDA, trailing 12 months (JPY bn)
Net income, trailing 12 months (JPY bn)
Shares outstanding (mn)

FY labels follow Indian fiscal years ending in March. Shares: 11,778,065,513. Price ¥3,070 at Fri, 30 Oct 2026 06:30:00 GMT.

Loading prices, five years of statements and peers…

The first visit to a stock takes a few seconds; repeat visits are cached.

Driver

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

FY30E

FY31E

Revenue growthFY23–FY26 avg 11.1%

EBIT marginFY23–FY26 avg 9.2%

Tax rateFY23–FY26 avg 26.8%

D&A % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 4.9%

Capex % of revenueFY23–FY26 avg 10.6%

Working capital % of revenue changeFY23–FY26 avg 57.4%

Range

Low

Mid

High

DCF scenarios (bear to bull)

¥1,270

¥2,105

¥3,824

DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point)

-¥109

¥2,105

¥15,376

Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs)

-¥1,373

¥2,124

¥8,584

EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile)

-¥1,708

-¥366

¥3,522

P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile)

¥2,695

¥2,954

¥5,579

Analyst targets (19 analysts, low to high)

¥2,930

¥3,677

¥4,900

52-week share price (trading range)

¥2,686

–

¥4,000

Altman Z'' = 2.66 (safe)

Ratio

Value

Weight

Adds

Working capital ÷ total assets

0.087

6.56

0.57

Retained earnings ÷ total assets

0.367

3.26

1.20

Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets

0.036

6.72

0.24

Book equity ÷ total liabilities

0.619

1.05

0.65

Beneish M = -2.34

Index

Value

Manipulators

Others

Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI)

1.058

1.465

1.031

Gross margin slipping (GMI)

1.194

1.193

1.014

More hard-to-value assets (AQI)

0.977

1.254

1.039

Sales growth (SGI)

1.055

1.607

1.134

Depreciation slowing (DEPI)

1.055

1.077

1.001

Overheads vs sales (SGAI)

0.931

1.041

1.054

Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA)

-0.015

0.031

0.018

Leverage rising (LVGI)

1.002

1.111

1.037

Measure

Value

Expected return (IRR), base case

5.4%

Required return (WACC)

5.8%

Expected minus required

−0.4 pts

Cost of equity

7.1%

10-year government bond

4.9%

Earnings power value per share

¥1,308

Share of price paying for growth

57%

Earnings yield

12.4%

Free cash flow yield

-6.7%

Revenue, JPY bn

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

FY30E

FY31E

Reported

37,154

45,095

48,037

50,685

Bear

54,790

57,585

59,888

61,685

62,918

Base

56,311

60,872

65,133

69,041

72,493

Bull

57,832

64,251

70,676

77,037

83,200

JPY bn

FY27E

FY28E

FY29E

FY30E

FY31E

Revenue

56,311

60,872

65,133

69,041

72,493

EBIT

4,167

4,505

4,820

5,109

5,365

NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax)

3,050

3,297

3,528

3,740

3,927

+ D&A

2,759

2,983

3,192

3,383

3,552

− Capex

5,969

5,722

5,276

4,764

4,060

− Increase in working capital

2,250

1,824

1,704

1,563

1,381

Free cash flow

-2,410

-1,266

-261

796

2,039

Present value

-2,355

-1,169

-227

657

1,589

Years to year end (t)

0.41

1.41

2.41

3.41

4.41

g ↓ · WACC →

4.80%

5.30%

5.80%

6.30%

6.80%

2.0%

¥2,272

¥1,404

¥766

¥277

-¥109

2.5%

¥3,414

¥2,188

¥1,334

¥706

¥225

3.0%

¥5,190

¥3,312

¥2,105

¥1,265

¥648

3.5%

¥8,329

¥5,059

¥3,211

¥2,024

¥1,198

4.0%

¥15,376

¥8,147

¥4,930

¥3,112

¥1,945

Company

In median

EV/EBITDA

P/E

EV/Sales

P/B

Op. margin

Rev. growth

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. 7267.T

Auto Manufacturers

12.3x

–

0.7x

0.6x

8.8%

13.5%

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. 7201.T

Auto Manufacturers

16.3x

–

0.6x

0.2x

2.6%

9.5%

Mazda Motor Corporation 7261.T

Auto Manufacturers

1.3x

6.4x

0.1x

0.4x

2.6%

16.9%

Subaru Corporation 7270.T

Auto Manufacturers

1.3x

21.6x

0.1x

0.7x

3.4%

3.0%

Suzuki Motor Corporation 7269.T

Auto Manufacturers

4.2x

7.8x

0.6x

1.1x

9.3%

22.0%

Median of included

4.2x

7.8x

0.6x

Toyota Motor Corporation

–

11.4x

8.1x

1.2x

1.0x

7.4%

5.5%

Implied value per share

25th pct

Median

75th pct

EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash

-¥1,708 (1.3x)

-¥366 (4.2x)

¥3,522 (12.3x)

P/E × earnings per share

¥2,695 (7.1x)

¥2,954 (7.8x)

¥5,579 (14.7x)

P/B × book value per share

¥1,091 (0.4x)

¥1,723 (0.6x)

¥2,073 (0.7x)

EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only)

-¥1,987 (0.1x)

¥182 (0.6x)

¥492 (0.6x)

Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices)

¥1,294

Toyota Motor Corporation (7203.T), valuation summary, 1 Nov 2026 Value estimate ¥1,700 (-44.6% vs today's price of ¥3,070). • DCF (base case): ¥2,105 per share. WACC 5.80%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 103% of enterprise value. • Peers: ¥1,294 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 5 peers). • Scenarios: bear ¥1,270, base ¥2,105, bull ¥3,824; probability-weighted ¥2,326. • What the price implies: 1.4% revenue growth a year for FY27E–FY31E, against 7.4% in this forecast. • Monte Carlo: 39% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% -¥1,373 to ¥8,584. • Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 11.1% → 8.1% → 7.0% → 6.0% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 7.4% to 7.4%; tax 26.8%. • Checks: to review: Terminal value is less than 85% of enterprise value. Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 1 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.

JPY bn

FY23

FY24

FY25

FY26

Avg ratio

Revenue

growth 11.1%

EBIT (operating profit)

margin 9.2%

D&A

4.9%

Profit before tax

Tax

rate 26.8%

Capex

10.6%

Increase in working capital

57.4% of Δrev