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Tokyo · Japan · Banks - Regional
The model's numbers as sentences. Every figure comes from the live data and your inputs, so the story changes when you change an input.
Valued roughly in line with its peers on earnings
At 14.9x trailing earnings, Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. trades roughly in line with the median of 4 peers (15.6x).
At 0.7x book value, Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. trades 52% below the median of 4 peers (1.4x).
Return on equity was 4.0% in FY26, below the 7.2% a year shareholders require (the cost of equity). A simple rule, fair P/B = (ROE − g) ÷ (cost of equity − g), gives about 0.2x against 0.7x today, if that return lasts.
Earnings yield is 6.7% (trailing earnings ÷ price) against 4.9% on a 10-year government bond: more profit per yen of price than the bond pays, though profits are less certain than interest.
Business health grade E (25 out of 100): shows serious signs of financial stress, with 1 strength and 4 red flags (top concern: thin capital cushion).
Educational, not investment advice. “Favourable” means the numbers lean in today's price's favour; “Caution” means the price asks a lot of the future.
Every valuation range side by side, against today's price and the value estimate. Per share, in JPY.
| Range | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B comps (25th to 75th percentile) | ¥4,185 | ¥4,914 | ¥5,631 |
| P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile) | ¥2,064 | ¥2,472 | ¥2,857 |
| Analyst targets (8 analysts, low to high) | ¥2,200 | ¥2,681 | ¥3,000 |
| 52-week share price (trading range) | ¥1,404 | – | ¥2,603 |
Is this a good, honest business, not just a cheap one? Published screens on the reported annual accounts (FY23–FY26), plus plain ratios. Screens, not verdicts: read the accounts before relying on any of them.
Grade E (25/100): shows serious signs of financial stress, with 1 strength and 4 red flags (top concern: thin capital cushion).
Piotroski F-score (Joseph Piotroski, 2000): nine pass-or-fail tests of profitability, debt, liquidity and efficiency, each comparing the latest year with the one before. 7 or more is strong; 3 or fewer is weak.
Altman Z'' (Edward Altman, 1995, the version for non-manufacturers and emerging markets): combines working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and book equity relative to the balance sheet. Above 2.60 is the safe zone, below 1.10 the distress zone.
Beneish M-score (Messod Beneish, 1999): eight ratios that, in his study, separated companies later found to have manipulated earnings. Above −1.78 resembles that pattern. It is a prompt to read the notes to the accounts, not an accusation.
Grade: a 0 to 100 blend (Piotroski 40%, Altman 20%, Beneish 15%, the ratios 25%, re-weighted when a part is missing): A from 80, B from 65, C from 50, D from 35, E below.
All three screens were built on US companies and annual accounts from Yahoo Finance, which can be incomplete. Lenders, insurers and holding companies get financial-firm ratios instead of the Altman and Beneish screens.
Price targets and ratings from the brokers' analysts who cover the stock, as Yahoo collects them. Their opinion, not this app's; set against the model so you can see where you differ.
8 analysts' average 12-month target is ¥2,681, +14.0% against today's ¥2,353 (median ¥2,675). The range runs from ¥2,200 to ¥3,000.
Your value estimate of ¥3,690 is 38% above the analysts' average: a big gap is worth explaining, it usually comes down to growth or margin assumptions.
Targets are usually for 12 months ahead and tend to run optimistic; brokers that cover a company often do business with it. Counts and targets come from different updates, so they may not match exactly.
How much the shares have swung and how far they have fallen over five years. Risk repeats far more reliably than direction, so this is the honest kind of forecast: how far the price may move, not which way.
Loading five years of prices…
For a lender, an insurer or an investment holding company, debt is raw material rather than financing, so free cash flow to the firm and the WACC bridge don't describe the business. The value above uses peer P/E and P/B only.
Found from Yahoo's related stocks in the same industry; multiples rebuilt here so currencies match. Untick a peer to drop it, or add your own.
| Company | In median | EV/EBITDA | P/E | EV/Sales | P/B | Op. margin | Rev. growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. 7182.T Banks - Regional | – | 17.9x | -11.6x | 1.2x | 44.5% | 30.0% | |
| Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. 8411.T Banks - Regional | – | 13.4x | -5.4x | 1.6x | 46.7% | 35.0% | |
| Resona Holdings, Inc. 8308.T Banks - Regional | – | 18.5x | -1.1x | 1.7x | 40.4% | 15.8% | |
| Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. 8309.T Banks - Regional | – | 12.2x | -1.5x | 1.2x | 39.5% | 27.3% | |
| Median of included | 4 | – | 15.6x | – | 1.4x | ||
| Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | – | – | 14.9x | -3.5x | 0.7x | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| Implied value per share | 25th pct | Median | 75th pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash | – (–) | – (–) | – (–) |
| P/E × earnings per share | ¥2,064 (13.1x) | ¥2,472 (15.6x) | ¥2,857 (18.1x) |
| P/B × book value per share | ¥4,185 (1.2x) | ¥4,914 (1.4x) | ¥5,631 (1.6x) |
| EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only) | – (–) | – (–) | – (–) |
| Peer value (average of median P/E and median P/B prices) | ¥3,693 |
Is today's multiple high or low for this stock? Its P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) or P/B (price ÷ book value per share) month by month, against the range it has traded in.
Loading ten years of monthly prices…
Three pieces of evidence that lead to a view. The client summary button copies all of this as text.
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. (6178.T), valuation summary, 2 Nov 2026 Value estimate ¥3,690 (+56.9% vs today's price of ¥2,353). • DCF (base case): ¥16,469 per share. WACC 6.28%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 83% of enterprise value. • Peers: ¥3,693 per share (average of median P/E and median P/B prices; 4 peers). • Scenarios: bear ¥15,084, base ¥16,469, bull ¥18,165; probability-weighted ¥16,546. • What the price implies: outside the range tested for FY27E–FY31E, against 3.4% in this forecast. • Monte Carlo: 100% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% ¥14,092 to ¥18,536. • Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 1.0% → 3.0% → 3.7% → 4.3% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 0.0% to 0.0%; tax 26.0%. • Checks: all pass. Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 2 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.
7 pass, 0 to review.
What the model uses, from Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices). Edit any number that looks wrong; your edits stay in this browser and are marked.
| JPY bn | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | Avg ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | growth 1.0% | ||||
| EBIT (operating profit) | margin 0.0% | ||||
| D&A | 2.2% | ||||
| Profit before tax | |||||
| Tax | rate 26.0% | ||||
| Capex | 2.6% | ||||
| Increase in working capital | -143.4% of Δrev |
| Cash and short-term investments (JPY bn) | |
| Borrowings (JPY bn) | |
| Lease liabilities (JPY bn) | |
| Minority interests (JPY bn) | |
| Dividends since the balance sheet (JPY bn) |
| Revenue, trailing 12 months (JPY bn) | |
| EBITDA, trailing 12 months (JPY bn) | |
| Net income, trailing 12 months (JPY bn) | |
| Shares outstanding (mn) |
FY labels follow Indian fiscal years ending in March. Shares: 2,734,392,490. Price ¥2,353 at Mon, 02 Nov 2026 01:18:45 GMT.