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Tokyo · Japan · Drug Manufacturers - General
The model's numbers as sentences. Every figure comes from the live data and your inputs, so the story changes when you change an input.
Priced for slower growth than it has delivered
At today's price of ¥12,015, the market is pricing in revenue growth of about -17.7% a year for 2026E–2030E, holding the rest of your base case. Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd.'s revenue grew 12.4% a year between 2022 and 2025, so the price asks for less than it has delivered.
Your base case assumes 8.0% revenue growth a year on average, more than the price implies, and values the shares at ¥26,097, 117% above today's price.
If your base case comes true, the whole business would return about 11.1% a year at today's price, 4.5 percentage points more than the 6.6% a year the model requires (the WACC).
Today's profits alone cover the price: 2025 operating profit after tax, held flat for ever, is worth ¥12,351 a share against ¥12,015.
Across 2,000 simulated futures around your base case, the middle 80% of values runs from ¥18,476 to ¥42,848 a share, and 100% of them are worth more than today's price.
Business health grade A (88 out of 100): passes most quality and accounting screens, with 5 strengths and no red flags.
Educational, not investment advice. “Favourable” means the numbers lean in today's price's favour; “Caution” means the price asks a lot of the future.
Every valuation range side by side, against today's price and the value estimate. Per share, in JPY.
| Range | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF scenarios (bear to bull) | ¥22,014 | ¥26,097 | ¥31,449 |
| DCF sensitivity (WACC and g ±1 point) | ¥17,460 | ¥26,097 | ¥56,430 |
| Monte Carlo (middle 80% of 2,000 runs) | ¥18,476 | ¥26,426 | ¥42,848 |
| EV/EBITDA comps (25th to 75th percentile) | ¥12,314 | ¥15,498 | ¥16,491 |
| P/E comps (25th to 75th percentile) | ¥10,843 | ¥12,340 | ¥14,414 |
| Analyst targets (13 analysts, low to high) | ¥10,200 | ¥14,631 | ¥18,600 |
| 52-week share price (trading range) | ¥8,083 | – | ¥12,795 |
Is this a good, honest business, not just a cheap one? Published screens on the reported annual accounts (2022–2025), plus plain ratios. Screens, not verdicts: read the accounts before relying on any of them.
Grade A (88/100): passes most quality and accounting screens, with 5 strengths and no red flags.
None of the checks raised a red flag.
F-score by year: 2023 7/9 · 2024 8/9
| Ratio | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital ÷ total assets | 0.208 | 6.56 | 1.36 |
| Retained earnings ÷ total assets | 0.525 | 3.26 | 1.71 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) ÷ total assets | 0.112 | 6.72 | 0.76 |
| Book equity ÷ total liabilities | 2.763 | 1.05 | 2.90 |
2025 figures. Safe above 2.60, grey zone 1.10 to 2.60, distress below 1.10.
Z'' by year: 2022 6.20 · 2023 5.88 · 2024 6.68
| Index | Value | Manipulators | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivables growing faster than sales (DSRI) | 1.037 | 1.465 | 1.031 |
| Gross margin slipping (GMI) | 1.000 | 1.193 | 1.014 |
| More hard-to-value assets (AQI) | 0.960 | 1.254 | 1.039 |
| Sales growth (SGI) | 1.060 | 1.607 | 1.134 |
| Depreciation slowing (DEPI) | 1.026 | 1.077 | 1.001 |
| Overheads vs sales (SGAI) | 0.989 | 1.041 | 1.054 |
| Profit not backed by cash, ÷ assets (TATA) | -0.010 | 0.031 | 0.018 |
| Leverage rising (LVGI) | 1.036 | 1.111 | 1.037 |
2025 against 2024. Above −1.78 the pattern resembles companies later found to have manipulated earnings; some analysts use a stricter −2.22.
Piotroski F-score (Joseph Piotroski, 2000): nine pass-or-fail tests of profitability, debt, liquidity and efficiency, each comparing the latest year with the one before. 7 or more is strong; 3 or fewer is weak.
Altman Z'' (Edward Altman, 1995, the version for non-manufacturers and emerging markets): combines working capital, retained earnings, operating profit and book equity relative to the balance sheet. Above 2.60 is the safe zone, below 1.10 the distress zone.
Beneish M-score (Messod Beneish, 1999): eight ratios that, in his study, separated companies later found to have manipulated earnings. Above −1.78 resembles that pattern. It is a prompt to read the notes to the accounts, not an accusation.
Grade: a 0 to 100 blend (Piotroski 40%, Altman 20%, Beneish 15%, the ratios 25%, re-weighted when a part is missing): A from 80, B from 65, C from 50, D from 35, E below.
All three screens were built on US companies and annual accounts from Yahoo Finance, which can be incomplete. Lenders, insurers and holding companies get financial-firm ratios instead of the Altman and Beneish screens.
Price targets and ratings from the brokers' analysts who cover the stock, as Yahoo collects them. Their opinion, not this app's; set against the model so you can see where you differ.
13 analysts' average 12-month target is ¥14,631, +21.8% against today's ¥12,015 (median ¥15,000). The range runs from ¥10,200 to ¥18,600.
Your value estimate of ¥20,010 is 37% above the analysts' average: a big gap is worth explaining, it usually comes down to growth or margin assumptions.
Targets are usually for 12 months ahead and tend to run optimistic; brokers that cover a company often do business with it. Counts and targets come from different updates, so they may not match exactly.
How much the shares have swung and how far they have fallen over five years. Risk repeats far more reliably than direction, so this is the honest kind of forecast: how far the price may move, not which way.
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A reverse DCF: the constant revenue growth, or the constant EBIT margin, that makes the DCF equal today's price, holding everything else in your base case.
The yearly return on the whole business at today's price if your base case comes true, against the return the model requires and what a government bond pays.
If your base case comes true, today's price earns about 11.1% a year, 4.5 percentage points more than the 6.6% the model requires.
Every ¥100 of share price buys ¥6.16 of today's profit a year, more than the ¥4.93 of interest the bond pays, though profit is less certain than interest.
Expected return (an internal rate of return). Imagine buying the whole company at today's price: its shares and its debt, less its cash. The expected return is the yearly rate that makes the free cash flows in your base case, plus the value after 2030E growing at 3.0%, add up to exactly today's price. When it is above the WACC, the price sits below your DCF value. It only comes true if the forecast does.
Earnings power value. What the business is worth if its last reported operating profit never grows or shrinks (a simplified version of Bruce Greenwald's method). It treats depreciation as the spending needed to stand still, and uses reported rather than average profit, so one unusual year moves it.
Earnings yield is the profit a year you buy with each unit of price (the P/E turned upside down). Free cash flow yield is the same idea with next year's forecast cash flow.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected return (IRR), base case | 11.1% |
| Required return (WACC) | 6.6% |
| Expected minus required | +4.5 pts |
| Cost of equity | 6.6% |
| 10-year government bond | 4.9% |
| Earnings power value per share | ¥12,351 |
| Share of price paying for growth | 0% |
| Earnings yield | 6.2% |
| Free cash flow yield | 5.4% |
Revenue path for each scenario and its value per share with the same WACC and terminal growth.
| Revenue, JPY bn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported | 1,738 | 2,019 | 2,330 | 2,469 | |||||
| Bear | 2,703 | 2,860 | 2,989 | 3,088 | 3,149 | ||||
| Base | 2,778 | 3,022 | 3,249 | 3,453 | 3,626 | ||||
| Bull | 2,852 | 3,188 | 3,523 | 3,850 | 4,158 |
2,000 simulated futures around your base case. Each run shifts growth, margin, WACC and terminal growth at random using the spreads below (one standard deviation).
FCF = EBIT × (1 − tax) + D&A − capex − increase in working capital, discounted at the WACC from today to each fiscal year end.
| JPY bn | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,778 | 3,022 | 3,249 | 3,453 | 3,626 |
| EBIT | 531 | 577 | 620 | 660 | 693 |
| NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax) | 463 | 503 | 541 | 575 | 604 |
| + D&A | 136 | 148 | 159 | 169 | 178 |
| − Capex | 161 | 175 | 185 | 193 | 203 |
| − Increase in working capital | 95.7 | 75.8 | 70.3 | 63.4 | 53.5 |
| Free cash flow | 342 | 400 | 445 | 488 | 525 |
| Present value | 338 | 372 | 387 | 398 | 402 |
| Years to year end (t) | 0.16 | 1.16 | 2.16 | 3.16 | 4.16 |
Enterprise value plus cash, minus debt, leases, minority interests and cash already returned to shareholders since the balance sheet, divided by the shares.
All amounts in JPY bn. Dividends with ex-dates after 2025-12-31: 2026-06-29 (100.00 per share).
DCF value per share, base case. Blue cells sit above today's price, red cells below; the outlined cell is your current pair.
| g ↓ · WACC → | 5.59% | 6.09% | 6.59% | 7.09% | 7.59% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | ¥26,835 | ¥23,631 | ¥21,125 | ¥19,112 | ¥17,460 |
| 2.5% | ¥30,641 | ¥26,463 | ¥23,307 | ¥20,840 | ¥18,857 |
| 3.0% | ¥35,917 | ¥30,212 | ¥26,097 | ¥22,990 | ¥20,560 |
| 3.5% | ¥43,718 | ¥35,409 | ¥29,791 | ¥25,739 | ¥22,678 |
| 4.0% | ¥56,430 | ¥43,095 | ¥34,912 | ¥29,378 | ¥25,387 |
Found from Yahoo's related stocks in the same industry; multiples rebuilt here so currencies match. Untick a peer to drop it, or add your own.
| Company | In median | EV/EBITDA | P/E | EV/Sales | P/B | Op. margin | Rev. growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astellas Pharma Inc. 4503.T Drug Manufacturers - General | 7.4x | 12.6x | 2.2x | 2.4x | 28.9% | 26.7% | |
| Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. 4519.T Drug Manufacturers - General | 14.6x | 22.3x | 7.3x | 5.4x | 50.1% | 21.5% | |
| Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited 4568.T Drug Manufacturers - General | 12.9x | 16.7x | 2.1x | 2.9x | 18.3% | 18.3% | |
| Median of included | 3 | 12.9x | 16.7x | 2.2x | 2.9x | ||
| Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. | – | 9.9x | 16.2x | 2.2x | 2.1x | 19.1% | 6.0% |
| Implied value per share | 25th pct | Median | 75th pct |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA × EBITDA + net cash | ¥12,314 (10.1x) | ¥15,498 (12.9x) | ¥16,491 (13.7x) |
| P/E × earnings per share | ¥10,843 (14.7x) | ¥12,340 (16.7x) | ¥14,414 (19.5x) |
| P/B × book value per share | ¥15,270 (2.7x) | ¥16,911 (2.9x) | ¥23,890 (4.2x) |
| EV/Sales × revenue + net cash (check only) | ¥11,485 (2.1x) | ¥11,721 (2.2x) | ¥24,940 (4.8x) |
| Peer value (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices) | ¥13,919 |
Is today's multiple high or low for this stock? Its P/E (price ÷ earnings per share) or P/B (price ÷ book value per share) month by month, against the range it has traded in.
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Three pieces of evidence that lead to a view. The client summary button copies all of this as text.
Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T), valuation summary, 1 Nov 2026 Value estimate ¥20,010 (+66.5% vs today's price of ¥12,015). • DCF (base case): ¥26,097 per share. WACC 6.59%, terminal growth 3.0%; terminal value is 86% of enterprise value. • Peers: ¥13,919 per share (average of median EV/EBITDA and median P/E prices; 3 peers). • Scenarios: bear ¥22,014, base ¥26,097, bull ¥31,449; probability-weighted ¥26,414. • What the price implies: -17.7% revenue growth a year for 2026E–2030E, against 8.0% in this forecast. • Monte Carlo: 100% of 2,000 simulated outcomes are above today's price; middle 80% ¥18,476 to ¥42,848. • Key assumptions (base): revenue growth 12.5% → 8.8% → 7.5% → 6.3% → 5.0%; EBIT margin 19.1% to 19.1%; tax 12.8%. • Checks: to review: Terminal value is less than 85% of enterprise value. Data: Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices), as of 1 Nov 2026. Educational model, not investment advice.
6 pass, 1 to review.
What the model uses, from Yahoo Finance via yahoo-finance2 (unofficial; delayed prices). Edit any number that looks wrong; your edits stay in this browser and are marked.
| JPY bn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Avg ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | growth 12.5% | ||||
| EBIT (operating profit) | margin 13.8% | ||||
| D&A | 4.9% | ||||
| Profit before tax | |||||
| Tax | rate 12.8% | ||||
| Capex | 5.8% | ||||
| Increase in working capital | 30.7% of Δrev |
| Cash and short-term investments (JPY bn) | |
| Borrowings (JPY bn) | |
| Lease liabilities (JPY bn) | |
| Minority interests (JPY bn) | |
| Dividends since the balance sheet (JPY bn) |
| Revenue, trailing 12 months (JPY bn) | |
| EBITDA, trailing 12 months (JPY bn) | |
| Net income, trailing 12 months (JPY bn) | |
| Shares outstanding (mn) |
Years are calendar fiscal years. Shares: 523,907,913. Price ¥12,015 at Fri, 30 Oct 2026 06:30:00 GMT.